TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
David Gasparovic vs Jan Krames Sr 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
71111610121161412
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:54 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeDavid Gasparovic to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Gasparovic above · Jan Krames Sr below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 4-2
Point 80 set 5, 4-2 · our read held David Gasparovic at 55.8%
80 points drawn · the score is 20 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H David Gasparovic 12–11 Jan Krames Sr Jan Krames Sr has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Krames Sr beat Gasparovic 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:5455.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Gasparovic
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-11 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gasparovic 1799 vs Krames Sr 1763
Gasparovic
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gasparovic 80% vs Krames Sr 60%
Gasparovic
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gasparovic 70% vs Krames Sr 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gasparovic -1 · Krames Sr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Gasparovic) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krames Sr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGasparovic 1.666 / Krames Sr 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Gasparovic)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13279561
Gasparovic1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 59 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it89% 23 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it76% 41 of 54
Krames Sr2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog54% won 45 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back31% 13 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGasparovic5wins
AwayKrames Sr5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGasparovic100%3 of 3
AwayKrames Sr71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gasparovic3Krames Sr7n = 10Krames Sr took 7 of 10
S2Gasparovic4Krames Sr6n = 10Krames Sr took 6 of 10
S3Gasparovic8Krames Sr2n = 10Gasparovic took 8 of 10
S4Gasparovic4Krames Sr3n = 7Gasparovic took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGasparovicKrames SrG − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.035.3−0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGasparovicKrames SrBasisWin rate · lifetime124 / 207 vs 387 / 69259.9%55.9%124 / 207 vs 387 / 692Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.940.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GasparovicGasparovic 1.67/Krames Sr 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Gasparovic · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gasparovic won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 11 · 12:00D. Gasparovic25641141J. Krames Sr3811115113
WSep 28 · 09:15D. Gasparovic331111113J. Krames Sr237880
LSep 27 · 15:15D. Gasparovic389101181J. Krames Sr4111127113
WSep 12 · 19:15D. Gasparovic44111012113J. Krames Sr368121061
LSep 4 · 20:53D. Gasparovic26761121J. Krames Sr4111118113
LSep 4 · 17:45D. Gasparovic44114111172J. Krames Sr45131173113
WAug 30 · 11:15D. Gasparovic4181111113J. Krames Sr31116681
LAug 28 · 15:45D. Gasparovic2210930J. Krames Sr341211113
WJul 19 · 11:30D. Gasparovic4291111113J. Krames Sr29114681
D. Gasparovic10
LOct 11 · 12:00J. Krames Sr2.2511115113D. Gasparovic1.57641141WOct 11 · 11:00V. Burylov1.911199111D. Gasparovic1.8051111133WOct 11 · 09:30J. Chalupa2.204111171D. Gasparovic1.6111133113WOct 10 · 16:50M. Kocvara2.63851131D. Gasparovic1.441111853WOct 10 · 15:15P. Wasik2.00911581D. Gasparovic1.731161193WOct 10 · 14:45D. Gasparovic1.831111113M. Kocvara1.837990WOct 10 · 13:45D. Gasparovic1.611111793J. Krames Sr2.20521161LOct 9 · 20:24D. Gasparovic1.2089111162J. Dolezal4.33111141113WOct 9 · 19:15J. Dolezal3.50116281D. Gasparovic1.2881111113LOct 9 · 17:45D. Gasparovic1.8061180L. Heinzl1.911113113
J. Krames Sr10
WOct 11 · 12:00J. Krames Sr2.2511115113D. Gasparovic1.57641141LOct 11 · 10:30J. Chalupa1.831151111113J. Krames Sr1.8341113692WOct 11 · 10:00V. Burylov1.831061111122J. Krames Sr1.83121197143WOct 10 · 16:21J. Krames Sr2.38671312113P. Wasik1.531111111042LOct 10 · 15:45J. Krames Sr1.57114891M. Kocvara2.2591111113WOct 10 · 14:15P. Wasik2.00117861J. Krames Sr1.7351111113LOct 10 · 13:45D. Gasparovic1.611111793J. Krames Sr2.20521161WOct 6 · 16:44L. Veigl2.50114591J. Krames Sr1.5081111113WOct 6 · 15:45J. Krames Sr1.611111153L. Veigl2.2047130LOct 6 · 14:15V. Grubr2.501041111113J. Krames Sr1.5012119892
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.