Jan Kabelka vs Jan Vidourek 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupHall 44 - B4 · Prague

Played Oct 11Finished

Jan Kabelka

Home

2.10

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

611114115511114

Jan Vidourek

Away

1.67

At publish

Lost last 7

Form at publish

1–9Last 10Lost last 7

The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Jan Vidourek to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingJan Kabelka above · Jan Vidourek below

Set 1 · 6-11

Set 2 · 11-4

Set 3 · 11-5

Set 4 · 5-11

Set 5 · 11-4

Point 79 set 5, 11-4 · our read held Jan Vidourek at 54.0%

79 points played in total.

H2H Jan Kabelka 9–16 Jan Vidourek Jan Kabelka has won 9 of their 25 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Kabelka

Kabelka 2.10/Vidourek 1.67

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Vidourek · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Kabelka won

The pickContradict

Sealed 18:28

54.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666

short by 6.0pp

60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Vidourek

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

9-16 in 25

Vidourek

Wrong

gap of 7 in 25, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Kabelka 1424 vs Vidourek 1387

Kabelka

Correct

both rated, 37 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Kabelka 40% vs Vidourek 0%

Kabelka

Correct

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Kabelka 30% vs Vidourek 10%

Kabelka

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Kabelka -1 · Vidourek -7

Vidourek

Wrong

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Contradict.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vidourek) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Vidourek: form 0%, the price implies 60%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKabelka 2.10 / Vidourek 1.666

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Kabelka)-1.6pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeKabelka4wins

AwayVidourek6wins

6 of 10 to a deciderVidourek leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeKabelka40%2 of 5

AwayVidourek60%3 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Kabelka5Vidourek5n = 10split evenly

S2Kabelka4Vidourek6n = 10Vidourek took 6 of 10

S3Kabelka6Vidourek4n = 10Kabelka took 6 of 10

S4Kabelka4Vidourek3n = 7Kabelka took 4 of 7

S5Kabelka2Vidourek4n = 6Vidourek took 4 of 6

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away440%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricKabelkaVidourekK − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.741.6−2.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricKabelkaVidourekBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 304 vs 170 / 34048.7%50%148 / 304 vs 170 / 340Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.9per match

TT Cup · #13278409

Kabelka2.10

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 09)

oldest → newest

10%takes the first set · 1 of 10

As underdog45% won 57 of 128

Down 0–1, comes back27% 20 of 75

Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 40

Vidourek1.67

10%won 1 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 5 days ago (Oct 06)

Lost last 7

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite61% won 52 of 86

Up 2–0, closes it87% 20 of 23

Up 1–0, closes it83% 29 of 35

Jan Kabelka vs Jan Vidourek 3-2 · TT Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Jan Kabelka vs Jan Vidourek 3-2 · TT Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.