TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Vidourek vs Miroslav Cyrus 3-1 · TT Cup
TT CupHall 44 - B4 · Prague
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111171191210––
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:23 and never touched: 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeJan Vidourek to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Vidourek above · Miroslav Cyrus below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 77 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Jan Vidourek at 65.3%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jan Vidourek 6–4 Miroslav Cyrus Miroslav Cyrus has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:2365.3%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 4.0pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Vidourek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Vidourek
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vidourek 1369 vs Cyrus 1286
Vidourek
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vidourek 0% vs Cyrus 20%
Cyrus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vidourek 10% vs Cyrus 10%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vidourek -9 · Cyrus -2
Vidourek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Vidourek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cyrus form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVidourek 1.444 / Cyrus 2.625
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Vidourek)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13278481
Vidourek1.44
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 9
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 52 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it87% 20 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it83% 29 of 35
Cyrus2.63
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog31% won 19 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back16% 6 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVidourek6wins
AwayCyrus4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVidourek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVidourek100%3 of 3
AwayCyrus57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vidourek3Cyrus7n = 10Cyrus took 7 of 10
S2Vidourek6Cyrus4n = 10Vidourek took 6 of 10
S3Vidourek5Cyrus5n = 10split evenly
S4Vidourek5Cyrus2n = 7Vidourek took 5 of 7
S5Vidourek2Cyrus1n = 3Vidourek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVidourekCyrusV − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.537.2+0.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVidourekCyrusBasisWin rate · lifetime170 / 342 vs 90 / 20649.7%43.7%170 / 342 vs 90 / 206Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VidourekVidourek 1.44/Cyrus 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Vidourek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vidourek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 12 · 17:50J. Vidourek49881111113M. Cyrus4411118772
LJul 12 · 15:05J. Vidourek3541110101M. Cyrus4311812123
LJun 24 · 21:10J. Vidourek186930M. Cyrus331111113
WJun 24 · 19:35J. Vidourek4213117113M. Cyrus381191171
WJun 10 · 18:05J. Vidourek531281111113M. Cyrus4414116762
WJun 9 · 18:05J. Vidourek331111113M. Cyrus194780
LJun 8 · 18:05J. Vidourek133550M. Cyrus331111113
WMay 27 · 18:35J. Vidourek4291111113M. Cyrus33117691
WApr 17 · 21:50J. Vidourek45111211113M. Cyrus389101361
LApr 17 · 20:35J. Vidourek45911111132M. Cyrus47118413113
J. Vidourek10
LOct 11 · 21:15J. Vidourek1.447117111M. Cyrus2.6311811133LOct 11 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.571111113J. Vidourek2.257670LOct 11 · 18:35J. Kabelka2.10611115113J. Vidourek1.6711451142LOct 6 · 21:08J. Kabelka1.91511121113J. Vidourek1.80116101172LOct 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.25741111113J. Vidourek1.5711118992LOct 6 · 19:35J. Vidourek2.204970M. Flesar1.611111113LOct 6 · 18:05T. Krcil1.83811118123J. Vidourek1.83117711102LSep 15 · 21:08J. Vidourek2.106970M. Flesar1.671111113LSep 15 · 20:05R. Vavricka1.801511113J. Vidourek1.9113690LSep 15 · 19:35D. Hons1.8311311113J. Vidourek1.83711751
M. Cyrus10
WOct 11 · 21:15J. Vidourek1.447117111M. Cyrus2.6311811133LOct 11 · 19:35M. Cyrus2.2571131162J. Kabelka1.57116118113LOct 11 · 18:05L. Vosyka1.2515119113M. Cyrus3.751361181WSep 30 · 21:03R. Jonas1.61891181M. Cyrus2.2011114113LSep 30 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.803530R. Jonas1.911111113LSep 30 · 19:05J. Martin1.28111410113M. Cyrus3.506121241LSep 30 · 18:35L. Vosyka1.4011116113M. Cyrus2.75681151LSep 29 · 21:14J. Kabelka1.6161111113M. Cyrus2.20115791LSep 29 · 20:35J. Kabelka1.7311119113M. Cyrus2.00921131LSep 29 · 19:35M. Cyrus2.751151161T. Krcil1.4013119113
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