TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kamil Kostyk vs Tadeusz Piotrowski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC 2 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
2111191179111416
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:34 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKamil Kostyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
101 points played in total.
Set by set
2111191179111416
H2H Kamil Kostyk 1–4 Tadeusz Piotrowski Kamil Kostyk has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 16h before this match
Piotrowski beat Kostyk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:3454.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kostyk
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Piotrowski
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kostyk 1442 vs Piotrowski 1368
Kostyk
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kostyk 80% vs Piotrowski 20%
Kostyk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kostyk 50% vs Piotrowski 30%
Kostyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kostyk +3 · Piotrowski -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kostyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Piotrowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKostyk 1.80 / Piotrowski 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kostyk)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13277945
Kostyk1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 49 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it76% 37 of 49
Piotrowski1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog27% won 26 of 97
Down 0–1, comes back17% 11 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKostyk1wins
AwayPiotrowski4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderPiotrowski leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKostykn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayPiotrowski100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kostyk1Piotrowski4n = 5Piotrowski took 4 of 5
S2Kostyk1Piotrowski4n = 5Piotrowski took 4 of 5
S3Kostyk1Piotrowski4n = 5Piotrowski took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away360%
These 5 meetings
MetricKostykPiotrowskiK − PBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match28.838.0−9.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKostykPiotrowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 462 vs 552 / 88648.3%62.3%223 / 462 vs 552 / 886Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KostykKostyk 1.80/Piotrowski 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kostyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Piotrowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 10 · 04:25K. Kostyk46116711113T. Piotrowski4381111672
LNov 16 · 12:25K. Kostyk187650T. Piotrowski331111113
LNov 16 · 04:00K. Kostyk2310670T. Piotrowski341211113
LOct 26 · 06:00K. Kostyk175570T. Piotrowski331111113
LOct 18 · 10:20K. Kostyk4081111642T. Piotrowski47118611113
K. Kostyk10
WOct 11 · 04:00K. Kostyk1.501111113K. Klocek2.406580WOct 11 · 03:00K. Kostyk1.5581111113A. Mugowski2.30119991WOct 10 · 14:15M. Minda1.919680K. Kostyk1.701111113LOct 10 · 13:25T. Piotrowski1.901151011113K. Kostyk1.8091112982WOct 10 · 11:20J. Lamperski1.7796130K. Kostyk1.931111153WOct 10 · 10:30B. Mleczko2.0589111472K. Kostyk1.701111512113LOct 10 · 09:00T. Filbrandt1.58118911113K. Kostyk2.2521111442LOct 10 · 08:05K. Klocek3.31101111113K. Kostyk1.29127891LOct 10 · 07:15B. Mleczko1.9011911133K. Kostyk1.809117111LOct 10 · 05:15J. Zochniak1.951211113K. Kostyk1.7710640
T. Piotrowski10
WOct 11 · 06:25K. Klocek2.1067110T. Piotrowski1.651111133LOct 11 · 04:50T. Piotrowski2.20511791J. Lamperski1.6111911113LOct 11 · 03:40T. Piotrowski2.20101114892M. Minda1.611281211113LOct 10 · 14:35T. Filbrandt1.2691111113T. Piotrowski3.50118541WOct 10 · 13:25T. Piotrowski1.901151011113K. Kostyk1.8091112982LOct 10 · 12:10B. Mleczko1.731111113T. Piotrowski2.009570LOct 10 · 10:55M. Minda1.8611212113T. Piotrowski1.8411101081LOct 10 · 09:20J. Lamperski1.7211119113T. Piotrowski2.00391191WOct 10 · 07:40J. Zochniak1.33119931T. Piotrowski3.1091111113WOct 10 · 06:50I. Dabrowski2.065880T. Piotrowski1.601111113
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