TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Tadeusz Piotrowski vs Michal Minda 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesHSC 2 · Czestochowa
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121181412811911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:37 and never touched: 59.5% is still 59.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Minda to win
59.5%
59.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
106 points played in total.
Set by set
10121181412811911
H2H Tadeusz Piotrowski 4–14 Michal Minda Tadeusz Piotrowski has won 4 of their 18 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 17h before this match
Minda beat Piotrowski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:3759.5%Our read62.1%to break even at 1.61
short by 2.6pp62.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.61 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Minda
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-14 in 18
Minda
Correct
gap of 10 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Piotrowski 1387 vs Minda 1439
Minda
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Piotrowski 20% vs Minda 60%
Minda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Piotrowski 40% vs Minda 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Piotrowski -1 · Minda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Minda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Piotrowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPiotrowski 2.20 / Minda 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 60%
Edge (Minda)-2.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13275342
Piotrowski2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog27% won 24 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back17% 10 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 39
Minda1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 259 of 408
Up 2–0, closes it95% 103 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it82% 195 of 239
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePiotrowski3wins
AwayMinda7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMinda leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePiotrowski66.7%2 of 3
AwayMinda85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Piotrowski3Minda7n = 10Minda took 7 of 10
S2Piotrowski4Minda6n = 10Minda took 6 of 10
S3Piotrowski3Minda7n = 10Minda took 7 of 10
S4Piotrowski3Minda2n = 5Piotrowski took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricPiotrowskiMindaP − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.636.6−4.0per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPiotrowskiMindaBasisWin rate · lifetime553 / 885 vs 1004 / 196862.5%51%553 / 885 vs 1004 / 1968Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MindaPiotrowski 2.20/Minda 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.5%
Minda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Minda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 11 · 10:30T. Piotrowski239950M. Minda331111113
LJul 11 · 08:30T. Piotrowski229490M. Minda331111113
LJul 11 · 06:00T. Piotrowski30116851M. Minda4071111113
LMay 2 · 12:45T. Piotrowski218670M. Minda331111113
LMar 22 · 13:40T. Piotrowski4981291192M. Minda491110116113
WFeb 15 · 05:10T. Piotrowski49131411113M. Minda451512991
WDec 13 · 07:10T. Piotrowski4011144113M. Minda376121181
LOct 18 · 13:10T. Piotrowski229760M. Minda331111113
WOct 18 · 06:35T. Piotrowski331111113M. Minda195770
LSep 20 · 07:55T. Piotrowski371191161M. Minda4413119113
T. Piotrowski10
LOct 10 · 14:35T. Filbrandt1.2691111113T. Piotrowski3.50118541WOct 10 · 13:25T. Piotrowski1.901151011113K. Kostyk1.8091112982LOct 10 · 12:10B. Mleczko1.731111113T. Piotrowski2.009570LOct 10 · 10:55M. Minda1.8611212113T. Piotrowski1.8411101081LOct 10 · 09:20J. Lamperski1.7211119113T. Piotrowski2.00391191WOct 10 · 07:40J. Zochniak1.33119931T. Piotrowski3.1091111113WOct 10 · 06:50I. Dabrowski2.065880T. Piotrowski1.601111113LOct 10 · 06:00T. Piotrowski2.105920B. Mleczko1.651111113LOct 10 · 04:25T. Piotrowski1.8581111672K. Kostyk1.86116711113WOct 10 · 03:40K. Klocek1.9911112922T. Piotrowski1.74771111113
M. Minda10
WOct 11 · 04:25M. Minda1.591111113A. Mugowski2.227890LOct 10 · 14:15M. Minda1.919680K. Kostyk1.701111113WOct 10 · 12:35J. Lamperski1.83118991M. Minda1.8351111113LOct 10 · 11:45T. Filbrandt1.26111189113M. Minda3.4597111152WOct 10 · 10:55M. Minda1.8611212113T. Piotrowski1.8411101081WOct 10 · 09:45M. Minda1.8511811113B. Mleczko1.85911781LOct 8 · 20:05M. Minda2.109830P. Perzynski1.671111113WOct 8 · 18:30B. Sulkowski1.83911581M. Minda1.8311511113WOct 8 · 17:40S. Brud1.611571071M. Minda2.20131112113LOct 8 · 16:55M. Minda1.6781111792A. Mugowski2.10117911113
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