TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Richard Wagner vs Matous Klimenta 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA12 · Liberec
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117511711711––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:17 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRichard Wagner above · Matous Klimenta below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 70 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Richard Wagner at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Richard Wagner 1–0 Matous Klimenta Matous Klimenta has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Wagner beat Klimenta 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:1754.0%Our read57.1%to break even at 1.75
short by 3.1pp57.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.75 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Wagner
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1777 vs Klimenta 1717
Wagner
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 80% vs Klimenta 60%
Wagner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 60% vs Klimenta 40%
Wagner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner +1 · Klimenta +3
Klimenta
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Wagner) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wagner form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.75 / Klimenta 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Wagner)-3.1pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13277704
Wagner1.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 86 of 152
Up 2–0, closes it96% 42 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it81% 64 of 79
Klimenta1.95
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 13 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back17% 3 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeWagner1wins
AwayKlimenta0wins
Wagner leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricWagnerKlimentaW − KBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match35.014.0+21.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerKlimentaBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 259 vs 189 / 33655.6%56.3%144 / 259 vs 189 / 336Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.239.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.75/Klimenta 1.95
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Klimenta won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 10 · 22:30R. Wagner351311113M. Klimenta1411300
R. Wagner10
WOct 11 · 01:30R. Wagner1.801111113J. Simecek1.916380LOct 11 · 00:30O. Svacha1.731111113R. Wagner2.007650WOct 10 · 23:30R. Urbaniec2.00811751R. Wagner1.7311611113WOct 10 · 22:30R. Wagner2.001311113M. Klimenta1.7311300WOct 9 · 16:58R. Wagner1.801111113R. Urbaniec1.917770LOct 9 · 16:30R. Wagner2.10118111172R. Urbaniec1.67211134113WOct 9 · 15:00R. Wagner2.38115511113J. Ruzicka1.5391111862LOct 9 · 14:00J. Mecl Jr1.67143611113R. Wagner2.10121111982LOct 9 · 13:30O. Svacha1.851111113R. Wagner1.858370WOct 9 · 12:00R. Urbaniec1.831311631R. Wagner1.8315711113
M. Klimenta10
WOct 11 · 02:00M. Klimenta1.531112113O. Svacha2.3861050WOct 11 · 01:00M. Klimenta1.8012912113R. Urbaniec1.9110111041WOct 11 · 00:00J. Simecek2.2539100M. Klimenta1.571111123LOct 10 · 22:30R. Wagner2.001311113M. Klimenta1.7311300LSep 25 · 20:58R. Rose2.001111910113M. Klimenta1.7369111282LSep 25 · 20:30M. Klimenta1.675680R. Rose2.101111113LSep 25 · 19:00M. Klimenta1.531541161R. Urbaniec2.3817117113WSep 25 · 18:00J. Mecl Jr2.10118891M. Klimenta1.6781111113LSep 8 · 09:00R. Urbaniec2.5061111113M. Klimenta1.50118971LSep 8 · 08:00M. Klimenta1.801311941J. Ruzicka1.91111311113
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