TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Semenets vs Volodymyr Varchenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115116911118––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:35 and never touched: 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Semenets to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Semenets above · Volodymyr Varchenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Serhii Semenets at 62.5%
72 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Semenets 11–7 Volodymyr Varchenko Volodymyr Varchenko has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:3562.5%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 1.2pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Semenets
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-7 in 18
Semenets
Correct
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semenets 1285 vs Varchenko 1134
Semenets
Correct
both rated, 151 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semenets 60% vs Varchenko 20%
Semenets
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semenets 70% vs Varchenko 20%
Semenets
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Semenets +1 · Varchenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Semenets) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Varchenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemenets 1.571 / Varchenko 2.25
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Semenets)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276760
Semenets1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 102 of 181
Up 2–0, closes it94% 48 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it76% 72 of 95
Varchenko2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 20 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSemenets7wins
AwayVarchenko3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSemenets leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSemenets83.3%5 of 6
AwayVarchenko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semenets6Varchenko4n = 10Semenets took 6 of 10
S2Semenets6Varchenko4n = 10Semenets took 6 of 10
S3Semenets8Varchenko2n = 10Semenets took 8 of 10
S4Semenets4Varchenko2n = 6Semenets took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSemenetsVarchenkoS − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.634.6+4.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemenetsVarchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime417 / 835 vs 110 / 24549.9%44.9%417 / 835 vs 110 / 245Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SemenetsSemenets 1.57/Varchenko 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Semenets · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Semenets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 15:10S. Semenets248880V. Varchenko331111113
LSep 13 · 10:05S. Semenets471111104112V. Varchenko44441211133
WSep 8 · 15:30S. Semenets4311911123V. Varchenko368117101
WSep 5 · 10:35S. Semenets4512811143V. Varchenko4210119121
WAug 23 · 08:35S. Semenets331111113V. Varchenko199640
WAug 22 · 06:30S. Semenets361213113V. Varchenko30101190
WAug 16 · 12:05S. Semenets331111113V. Varchenko216780
LAug 9 · 11:05S. Semenets336511111V. Varchenko4311118133
WAug 5 · 15:30S. Semenets4291111113V. Varchenko32119661
WAug 2 · 09:20S. Semenets50101414123V. Varchenko46121212101
S. Semenets10
LOct 11 · 13:40V. Stukalov1.911311113S. Semenets1.8011090WOct 11 · 11:40V. Kucheriavyi2.2589171162S. Semenets1.571111155113LOct 7 · 12:05O. Mytsyk1.4011715113S. Semenets2.755111361WOct 7 · 10:35S. Semenets1.731111113S. Hovorunets2.004440WOct 7 · 08:35V. Stukalov1.911148101S. Semenets1.8081111123LOct 7 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.5311115113S. Semenets2.38681171LOct 7 · 05:33V. Kondratenko1.531111113S. Semenets2.387970WOct 6 · 17:40S. Hovorunets1.91119101172S. Semenets1.80311128113WOct 6 · 16:10S. Semenets3.25111185113S. Skhabitskiy1.3377111182WOct 6 · 14:10P. Ostrovskyi2.38116671S. Semenets1.5381111113
V. Varchenko10
LOct 11 · 10:40V. Stukalov1.8311511113V. Varchenko1.83711981LOct 10 · 11:30V. Kondratenko1.331111113V. Varchenko3.259580WOct 10 · 10:00V. Varchenko1.8371112103S. Osipov1.831121091LOct 10 · 08:00V. Stukalov2.00119118113V. Varchenko1.7351161172LOct 10 · 06:00V. Mukhin1.3061114113V. Varchenko3.401121251LOct 10 · 05:00S. Skhabitskiy1.40101111113V. Varchenko2.75129841LOct 4 · 15:45V. Stukalov2.00114118113V. Varchenko1.7361161182WOct 4 · 14:10K. Klymenko1.36911111172V. Varchenko3.0011471383LOct 4 · 13:10V. Varchenko3.259450M. Khalenko1.331111113LOct 4 · 12:10V. Kondratenko1.361111133V. Varchenko3.0079110
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