TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Ponomarenko vs Kostiantyn Tsoi 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711114116811118
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:56 and never touched: 75.8% is still 75.8%
Graded at full timeOleh Ponomarenko to win
75.8%
75.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Ponomarenko above · Kostiantyn Tsoi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 88 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Oleh Ponomarenko at 75.8%
88 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Ponomarenko 38–14 Kostiantyn Tsoi Kostiantyn Tsoi has won 14 of their 52 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5675.8%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
short by 1.1pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
38-14 in 52
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 24 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1147 vs Tsoi 924
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 223 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 80% vs Tsoi 60%
Ponomarenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 80% vs Tsoi 60%
Ponomarenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -1 · Tsoi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% · Strong (leans Ponomarenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tsoi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.30 / Tsoi 3.40
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Ponomarenko)-1.1pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276326
Ponomarenko1.30
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite71% won 89 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it98% 50 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it89% 69 of 78
Tsoi3.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog13% won 3 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back5% 1 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko8wins
AwayTsoi2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko87.5%7 of 8
AwayTsoin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko8Tsoi2n = 10Ponomarenko took 8 of 10
S2Ponomarenko8Tsoi2n = 10Ponomarenko took 8 of 10
S3Ponomarenko5Tsoi5n = 10split evenly
S4Ponomarenko4Tsoi2n = 6Ponomarenko took 4 of 6
S5Ponomarenko2Tsoi1n = 3Ponomarenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoTsoiP − TBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.932.6+7.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoTsoiBasisWin rate · lifetime316 / 666 vs 34 / 9747.5%35.1%316 / 666 vs 34 / 97Avg sets wonper match1.91.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.432.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.30/Tsoi 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.8%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 11 · 11:05O. Ponomarenko48711118113K. Tsoi4011461182
WOct 4 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko4111118113K. Tsoi27471151
WSep 26 · 06:00O. Ponomarenko331111113K. Tsoi209560
LAug 15 · 06:00O. Ponomarenko367117111K. Tsoi4311811133
WMay 9 · 16:30O. Ponomarenko331111113K. Tsoi239860
WApr 18 · 09:35O. Ponomarenko481131011133K. Tsoi43311126112
WMar 29 · 09:35O. Ponomarenko331111113K. Tsoi165470
WAug 30 · 09:00O. Ponomarenko4111118113K. Tsoi35881181
LJul 27 · 10:30O. Ponomarenko53149101192K. Tsoi541211128113
WJul 26 · 07:00O. Ponomarenko331111113K. Tsoi257990
O. Ponomarenko10
LOct 11 · 09:35O. Ponomarenko1.5771111472V. Mykhalchenko2.25117811113WOct 11 · 08:05O. Ponomarenko1.401111113M. Tkalich2.755690WOct 11 · 06:35O. Ponomarenko1.221111113O. Riabuha4.008470WOct 11 · 05:05O. Ponomarenko1.501111113D. Kunchurov2.503940WOct 9 · 10:30P. Ostrovskyi1.50941151O. Ponomarenko2.5011118113WOct 9 · 09:30O. Ponomarenko2.201112113S. Osipov1.6171050WOct 9 · 08:30O. Ponomarenko1.331181110113O. Efimov3.2541171292WOct 9 · 07:00O. Ponomarenko1.20881111113M. Mykhailenko4.3311118742WOct 9 · 05:00O. Ponomarenko1.441111113D. Kunchurov2.638880LOct 8 · 11:35O. Ponomarenko1.4411381152D. Kunchurov2.63611118113
K. Tsoi10
LOct 11 · 10:05K. Tsoi3.003570M. Tkalich1.361111113WOct 11 · 09:05K. Tsoi2.1011116113D. Kunchurov1.67991181LOct 11 · 07:35K. Tsoi5.50851161V. Mykhalchenko1.1311116113WOct 11 · 05:35K. Tsoi1.251112113O. Riabuha3.7591070WOct 4 · 11:35K. Tsoi1.22111195143K. Vernudin4.00551111122WOct 4 · 09:34O. Riabuha2.384710K. Tsoi1.531111113WOct 4 · 08:35K. Tsoi1.737101111113O. Efimov2.0011121472LOct 4 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.3611118113K. Tsoi3.00471151WOct 4 · 06:05K. Tsoi2.25791211113D. Kunchurov1.57111110852LSep 26 · 11:30D. Kunchurov1.5711711113K. Tsoi2.25711661
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