TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Milan Kolar vs Vaclav Kosar 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA14 · Liberec
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
112114113––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:27 and never touched: 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeMilan Kolar to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Kolar above · Vaclav Kosar below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 42 set 3, 11-3 · our read held Milan Kolar at 55.5%
42 points played in total.
H2H Milan Kolar 1–1 Vaclav Kosar Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:2755.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 6.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kolar
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kolar 1480 vs Kosar 1490
Kosar
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolar 80% vs Kosar 60%
Kolar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolar 70% vs Kosar 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolar +3 · Kosar +1
Kolar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Kolar) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosar form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolar 1.615 / Kosar 2.20
Signal prob.56% / 45%
Edge (Kolar)-6.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13275835
Kolar1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 106 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it88% 59 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it78% 83 of 107
Kosar2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog53% won 78 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back34% 24 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKolar1wins
AwayKosar1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKolarKosarKolar − KosarBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match47.040.5+6.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolarKosarBasisWin rate · lifetime412 / 818 vs 229 / 42850.4%53.5%412 / 818 vs 229 / 428Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolarKolar 1.61/Kosar 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.5%
Kolar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kolar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WOct 10 · 21:30M. Kolar4181111113V. Kosar27116371
LOct 10 · 19:00M. Kolar53111117772V. Kosar54761911113
M. Kolar10
WOct 11 · 22:00M. Kolar1.57811911113M. Smrcek2.2511711872WOct 10 · 21:30M. Kolar1.8281111113V. Kosar1.88116371WOct 10 · 20:30M. Kolar1.53811127113F. Briza2.38116101182LOct 10 · 19:00M. Kolar1.50111117772V. Kosar2.50761911113WOct 10 · 18:00T. Regner1.61116111282M. Kolar2.20711714113LOct 7 · 03:30M. Kolar2.503550A. Mikuska1.501111113WOct 7 · 02:00M. Kolar1.571111113F. Briza2.259760WOct 7 · 01:00M. Kolar1.831110713113V. Postelt1.83212111182LOct 7 · 00:00A. Mikuska1.501110711113M. Kolar2.5081211372WOct 6 · 22:30A. Svoboda1.6141111982M. Kolar2.20114811113
V. Kosar10
WOct 11 · 22:30V. Kosar2.105101114113F. Briza1.67111261262LOct 10 · 21:30M. Kolar1.8281111113V. Kosar1.88116371WOct 10 · 20:00T. Regner1.80125461V. Kosar1.91101111113WOct 10 · 19:00M. Kolar1.50111117772V. Kosar2.50761911113LOct 10 · 18:30V. Kosar1.808330F. Briza1.911111113WOct 9 · 02:58T. Andrle1.3011760V. Kosar3.401311113LOct 9 · 02:30V. Kosar2.201165101M. Smrcek1.6161111123WOct 9 · 01:30P. Picek1.67101181182V. Kosar2.10126117113LOct 9 · 00:00V. Kosar2.639590T. Andrle1.441111113WOct 8 · 23:00R. Bartunek1.911111851V. Kosar1.8071311113
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