TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Regner vs Milan Kolar 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA12 · Liberec
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1176111171214811
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:26 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeTomas Regner to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Milan Kolar @ 2.20 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
How it is goingTomas Regner above · Milan Kolar below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 3-6
Point 88 set 5, 3-6 · our read held Tomas Regner at 54.9%
88 points drawn · the score is 10 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Tomas Regner 26–12 Milan Kolar Milan Kolar has won 12 of their 38 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 11:26Sent to Pro: Milan Kolar @ 2.20 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
54.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 7.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Regner
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-12 in 38
Regner
Wrong
gap of 14 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1299 vs Kolar 1452
Kolar
Correct
both rated, 153 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 20% vs Kolar 60%
Kolar
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 30% vs Kolar 50%
Kolar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner -3 · Kolar -1
Regner
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Regner) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolar form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 1.615 / Kolar 2.20
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Regner)-7.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13268904
Regner1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 06)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 93 of 161
Up 2–0, closes it86% 38 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it68% 63 of 93
Kolar2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 07)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 77 of 186
Down 0–1, comes back19% 17 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner8wins
AwayKolar2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRegner leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner80%4 of 5
AwayKolar20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner5Kolar5n = 10split evenly
S2Regner4Kolar6n = 10Kolar took 6 of 10
S3Regner8Kolar2n = 10Regner took 8 of 10
S4Regner7Kolar3n = 10Regner took 7 of 10
S5Regner3Kolar1n = 4Regner took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerKolarR − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.436.8+5.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerKolarBasisWin rate · lifetime478 / 979 vs 412 / 82548.8%49.9%478 / 979 vs 412 / 825Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolarRegner 1.61/Kolar 2.20
Hit
What we said
54.9%
Regner · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Milan Kolar @ 2.20 · Won
The Pro pick went the other way, on a re-read before the serve.
What happened
2–3
Kolar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 25 · 23:00T. Regner4011711113M. Kolar29811551
WJun 10 · 22:00T. Regner47611811113M. Kolar4311911482
WJun 6 · 19:30T. Regner3411111113M. Kolar25113741
LJun 5 · 23:00T. Regner4211511692M. Kolar43211811113
WJun 4 · 21:30T. Regner561571211113M. Kolar47171110722
WJun 4 · 20:00T. Regner511111117113M. Kolar4113541182
WMay 31 · 06:00T. Regner3911611113M. Kolar27811711
LMay 28 · 21:30T. Regner331171141M. Kolar4313118113
WMay 28 · 18:00T. Regner3911116113M. Kolar36881191
WMay 21 · 18:30T. Regner4311911123M. Kolar348115101
T. Regner10
LOct 6 · 21:30M. Stefek1.651111113T. Regner2.108880LOct 6 · 20:30T. Regner2.1096111172J. Framberk1.67111149113LOct 6 · 19:00T. Regner1.8311811522M. Stefek1.83511911113WOct 6 · 18:00J. Moravek2.38415101162T. Regner1.531113126113LOct 6 · 02:58M. Necas1.6761111113T. Regner2.10119451LOct 6 · 02:30T. Regner2.3887111172R. Bartunek1.53111169113LOct 6 · 01:30M. Necas1.9151211113T. Regner1.801110491LOct 6 · 00:00T. Regner1.83111161182M. Stefek1.83613114113WOct 5 · 23:00L. Sulava1.8347100T. Regner1.831111123WSep 29 · 02:30J. Briska1.33111110652T. Regner3.25561211113
M. Kolar10
LOct 10 · 19:00M. Kolar1.50111117772V. Kosar2.50761911113LOct 7 · 03:30M. Kolar2.503550A. Mikuska1.501111113WOct 7 · 02:00M. Kolar1.571111113F. Briza2.259760WOct 7 · 01:00M. Kolar1.831110713113V. Postelt1.83212111182LOct 7 · 00:00A. Mikuska1.501110711113M. Kolar2.5081211372WOct 6 · 22:30A. Svoboda1.6141111982M. Kolar2.20114811113WOct 4 · 09:00D. Horak1.801051191M. Kolar1.9112117113LOct 4 · 08:30M. Kolar1.5371040F. Briza2.381112113LOct 4 · 07:00M. Kolar1.834650A. Svoboda1.831111113LOct 4 · 06:00D. Horak1.91491211113M. Kolar1.80111110252
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