TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Regner vs Jan Framberk 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911611114119711
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:25 and never touched: 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeJan Framberk to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Regner above · Jan Framberk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 90 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Jan Framberk at 57.4%
90 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Regner 4–8 Jan Framberk Tomas Regner has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:2557.4%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 2.6pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Framberk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Framberk
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1320 vs Framberk 1309
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 20% vs Framberk 40%
Framberk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 30% vs Framberk 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner -1 · Framberk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Framberk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Framberk form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 2.10 / Framberk 1.666
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Framberk)-2.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13249150
Regner2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 100 of 227
Down 0–1, comes back26% 32 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 66
Framberk1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite67% won 52 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it100% 19 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it80% 36 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner2wins
AwayFramberk8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderFramberk leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner25%1 of 4
AwayFramberk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner4Framberk6n = 10Framberk took 6 of 10
S2Regner5Framberk5n = 10split evenly
S3Regner3Framberk7n = 10Framberk took 7 of 10
S4Regner2Framberk6n = 8Framberk took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerFramberkR − FBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.639.5−5.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerFramberkBasisWin rate · lifetime478 / 977 vs 93 / 17848.9%52.3%478 / 977 vs 93 / 178Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FramberkRegner 2.10/Framberk 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.4%
Framberk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Framberk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 21:30T. Regner331111113J. Framberk235990
LSep 22 · 18:30T. Regner32114891J. Framberk4291111113
LSep 16 · 22:30T. Regner34138941J. Framberk44111111113
LSep 7 · 23:30T. Regner409811121J. Framberk4411118143
LAug 6 · 21:00T. Regner194870J. Framberk331111113
LAug 6 · 19:30T. Regner33611971J. Framberk3911611113
LJul 29 · 16:00T. Regner27612541J. Framberk43111011113
LJul 22 · 15:30T. Regner37911891J. Framberk4011711113
LJul 14 · 16:00T. Regner4011381172J. Framberk50911118113
WJun 21 · 17:00T. Regner4171211113J. Framberk371110971
T. Regner10
LOct 6 · 21:30M. Stefek1.651111113T. Regner2.108880LOct 6 · 19:00T. Regner1.8311811522M. Stefek1.83511911113WOct 6 · 18:00J. Moravek2.38415101162T. Regner1.531113126113LOct 6 · 02:58M. Necas1.6761111113T. Regner2.10119451LOct 6 · 02:30T. Regner2.3887111172R. Bartunek1.53111169113LOct 6 · 01:30M. Necas1.9151211113T. Regner1.801110491LOct 6 · 00:00T. Regner1.83111161182M. Stefek1.83613114113WOct 5 · 23:00L. Sulava1.8347100T. Regner1.831111123WSep 29 · 02:30J. Briska1.33111110652T. Regner3.25561211113LSep 29 · 01:00M. Ulrych1.831111113T. Regner1.835650
J. Framberk10
WOct 6 · 20:58J. Moravek1.509510J. Framberk2.501111113LOct 6 · 19:30J. Framberk2.206760J. Moravek1.611111113LOct 6 · 18:30M. Stefek1.401111143J. Framberk2.7578120WOct 6 · 17:00M. Syroha2.0511114652J. Framberk1.65591111113LOct 6 · 16:00M. Barta2.10911312113J. Framberk1.67117111062WOct 6 · 15:00M. Syroha2.20711661J. Framberk1.6111311113LOct 6 · 14:30J. Framberk1.4041020V. Hruska Sr2.751112113LOct 1 · 03:00M. Stefek1.441311113J. Framberk2.6311680LOct 1 · 02:00J. Framberk3.2510680V. Dolezal1.331211113WOct 1 · 01:00J. Framberk2.5012118113M. Novak1.501091121
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