TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Vojtech Stach vs Milan Vrabec 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA12 · Liberec
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210116118––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:17 and never touched: 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeMilan Vrabec to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Milan Vrabec @ 1.50 · Lost
How it is goingVojtech Stach above · Milan Vrabec below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 58 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Milan Vrabec at 63.3%
58 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Stach 6–7 Milan Vrabec Vojtech Stach has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Vrabec beat Stach 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pick
Sealed 09:17Sent to Pro: Milan Vrabec @ 1.50 · Lost
63.3%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
clears by 1.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vrabec
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stach 1094 vs Vrabec 1185
Vrabec
Wrong
both rated, 92 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stach 20% vs Vrabec 60%
Vrabec
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stach 10% vs Vrabec 60%
Vrabec
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stach -2 · Vrabec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Vrabec) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stach form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStach 2.20 / Vrabec 1.615
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Vrabec)+1.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13275105
Stach2.20
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog47% won 29 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back18% 6 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Vrabec1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite72% won 78 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it90% 56 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStach5wins
AwayVrabec5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStach80%4 of 5
AwayVrabec80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stach5Vrabec5n = 10split evenly
S2Stach5Vrabec5n = 10split evenly
S3Stach4Vrabec6n = 10Vrabec took 6 of 10
S4Stach4Vrabec5n = 9Vrabec took 5 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStachVrabecS − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.137.2−2.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStachVrabecBasisWin rate · lifetime80 / 163 vs 188 / 36649.1%51.4%80 / 163 vs 188 / 366Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VrabecStach 2.20/Vrabec 1.61
Miss
What we said
63.3%
Vrabec · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Milan Vrabec @ 1.50 · Lost
What happened
3–0
Stach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 11 · 09:00V. Stach37912971M. Vrabec43111011113
WOct 11 · 07:00V. Stach4271111133M. Vrabec371178111
LOct 4 · 16:59V. Stach135080M. Vrabec331111113
LOct 4 · 15:30V. Stach34117881M. Vrabec4291111113
LSep 13 · 10:30V. Stach381091271M. Vrabec44121110113
WAug 25 · 09:30V. Stach4111118113M. Vrabec26351171
WAug 25 · 06:30V. Stach4011711113M. Vrabec29311871
WAug 15 · 13:30V. Stach3811124113M. Vrabec358101161
LAug 15 · 11:30V. Stach24711151M. Vrabec4111811113
WAug 3 · 08:00V. Stach44118113113M. Vrabec4251171182
V. Stach10
LOct 11 · 11:00Z. Kasinski1.679111123V. Stach2.10114901LOct 11 · 09:00M. Vrabec1.80111011113V. Stach1.90912971LOct 11 · 08:00J. Hyrsl1.911711113V. Stach1.8015780WOct 11 · 07:00M. Vrabec1.571178111V. Stach2.2571111133LOct 11 · 06:30V. Stach1.836880M. Smesny1.831111113LOct 4 · 16:59M. Vrabec1.721111113V. Stach2.005080LOct 4 · 16:00V. Stach1.5358111172D. Mutl2.38111185113LOct 4 · 15:30M. Vrabec2.0091111113V. Stach1.73117881LOct 4 · 14:00V. Stach1.67712771Z. Kasinski2.10111011113LOct 3 · 01:30V. Stach1.67119391L. Havrda2.1061111113
M. Vrabec10
WOct 11 · 09:00M. Vrabec1.80111011113V. Stach1.90912971WOct 11 · 08:30M. Vrabec1.5061111113M. Smesny2.50118341LOct 11 · 07:00M. Vrabec1.571178111V. Stach2.2571111133LOct 11 · 06:00J. Hyrsl1.618111011113M. Vrabec2.2011312852WOct 9 · 08:58M. Vrabec1.4081111113M. Smesny2.75119621WOct 9 · 08:30M. Vrabec1.5011311113M. Smesny2.50411781LOct 9 · 07:00M. Vrabec1.731191191D. Mutl2.0013117113LOct 9 · 06:00J. Grohsgott1.73111199113M. Vrabec2.0086111142WOct 4 · 16:59M. Vrabec1.721111113V. Stach2.005080WOct 4 · 15:30M. Vrabec2.0091111113V. Stach1.73117881
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