TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ondrej Kadavy vs Filip Cernota 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811116711117811
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingOndrej Kadavy above · Filip Cernota below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 91 set 5, 8-11
91 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kadavy 2–1 Filip Cernota Filip Cernota has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Cernota beat Kadavy 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernota form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKadavy 1.909 / Cernota 1.80
TT Cup · #13270666
Kadavy1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 36 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 27
Cernota1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 17 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it72% 13 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKadavy2wins
AwayCernota1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderKadavy leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kadavy1Cernota2n = 3Cernota took 2 of 3
S2Kadavy1Cernota2n = 3Cernota took 2 of 3
S3Kadavy2Cernota1n = 3Kadavy took 2 of 3
S4Kadavy2Cernota1n = 3Kadavy took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKadavyCernotaK − CBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match42.739.0+3.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKadavyCernotaBasisWin rate · lifetime200 / 345 vs 99 / 17158%57.9%200 / 345 vs 99 / 171Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.140.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
CernotaKadavy 1.91/Cernota 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
2–3
Cernota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LOct 9 · 15:55O. Kadavy36981181F. Cernota4111118113
WAug 17 · 21:54O. Kadavy43101111113F. Cernota31125591
WAug 17 · 18:55O. Kadavy491110611113F. Cernota4581211772
O. Kadavy10
WOct 9 · 16:55O. Kadavy2.00891111113M. Stusek1.7311118512LOct 9 · 15:55O. Kadavy1.83981181F. Cernota1.8311118113WOct 6 · 22:35O. Kadavy1.73111113113D. Bochnak2.00961571LOct 6 · 21:25M. Cerny3.0011711113O. Kadavy1.36711881WOct 6 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.73101111113D. Bochnak2.00126791WOct 6 · 18:55P. Vanek2.385770O. Kadavy1.531111113WOct 4 · 10:13F. Strejc1.91613561O. Kadavy1.80111111113LOct 4 · 08:55O. Kadavy1.913850M. Stusek1.801111113WOct 4 · 07:55O. Kadavy1.83112711123F. Strejc1.83911115102LOct 4 · 06:55O. Kadavy1.831171081V. Benak1.8371112113
F. Cernota10
LOct 9 · 17:25F. Cernota1.8071240V. Benak1.911114113WOct 9 · 15:55O. Kadavy1.83981181F. Cernota1.8311118113LOct 9 · 15:25M. Stusek2.101116113F. Cernota1.6791440WOct 7 · 22:28M. Stusek1.9115610121F. Cernota1.80131112143LOct 7 · 20:55F. Cernota1.9191160M. Stusek1.801113113WOct 7 · 19:55F. Cernota2.1051111113J. Zlamal1.67119891WOct 7 · 18:55F. Cernota1.571111113T. Vorisek2.259980WOct 1 · 21:25F. Cernota1.831111153M. Stusek1.8381130LOct 1 · 20:50F. Cernota1.67511561T. Vorisek2.1011911113WOct 1 · 19:20M. Stusek1.9171211192F. Cernota1.801110118113
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