TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Karel Polak vs Vojtech Kral 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1191161113411711
Vojtech Kral
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–5Last 6Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:27 and never touched: 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeKarel Polak to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKarel Polak above · Vojtech Kral below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 94 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Karel Polak at 62.5%
94 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2762.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 4.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Polak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Polak 1414 vs Kral 1162
Polak
Wrong
both rated, 252 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polak 40% vs Kral 20%
Polak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polak 70% vs Kral 17%
Polak
Wrong
53pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polak -3 · Kral -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Polak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kral form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 1.50 / Kral 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Polak)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270634
Polak1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 25 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it78% 18 of 23
Kral2.50
17%won 1 of 6 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest33%takes the first set · 2 of 6
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands: it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakKralBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 354 vs 1 / 649.7%16.7%176 / 354 vs 1 / 6Avg sets wonper match2.01.5per matchAvg pointsper match38.234.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PolakPolak 1.50/Kral 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.5%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kral won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together: one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
K. Polak10
LOct 10 · 10:30K. Polak2.208590A. Dvoracek1.611111113LOct 10 · 09:30K. Polak2.105117111J. Hanacek1.6711911133LOct 9 · 20:29K. Polak1.83118611112R. Slunecko1.83911116133WOct 9 · 19:30R. Slunecko2.0054111162K. Polak1.73111178113WOct 9 · 19:00K. Polak2.201111118113D. Sabuka1.6191361192WOct 9 · 18:00K. Polak1.57111312113M. Cmil2.256111481WOct 8 · 17:05K. Polak1.6771111113J. Mejzlik2.10118241WOct 8 · 16:00L. Tuma1.5711411472K. Polak2.25211511113WOct 8 · 15:00J. Mejzlik1.61911651K. Polak2.2011511113WOct 8 · 13:30E. Ondracek1.678560K. Polak2.101111113
V. Kral6
LOct 10 · 11:00V. Kral2.25771131J. Hanacek1.5711115113LOct 10 · 10:00V. Kral2.38841241A. Dvoracek1.53111110113LSep 24 · 08:34P. Moulis2.5031211113V. Kral1.501110471LSep 24 · 07:30M. Snizek2.10111168133V. Kral1.67951111112WSep 24 · 07:00V. Kral1.7311116113P. Moulis2.00671191LSep 24 · 06:00V. Kral1.83751191J. Puk1.8311118113
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