TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Szymon Radlo vs Michal Lysakowski 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811114911611––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:52 and never touched: 59.8% is still 59.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Lysakowski to win
59.8%
59.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
71 points played in total.
Set by set
811114911611––
H2H Szymon Radlo 51–62 Michal Lysakowski Szymon Radlo has won 51 of their 113 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:5259.8%Our read64.9%to break even at 1.54
short by 5.1pp64.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.54 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.54 (59%)
Lysakowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
51-62 in 113
Lysakowski
Correct
gap of 11 in 113, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Radlo 1566 vs Lysakowski 1603
Lysakowski
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Radlo 80% vs Lysakowski 40%
Radlo
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Radlo 40% vs Lysakowski 60%
Lysakowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Radlo +2 · Lysakowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Lysakowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysakowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRadlo 2.25 / Lysakowski 1.54
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Lysakowski)-5.1pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13266815
Radlo2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 06)
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 170 of 337
Down 0–1, comes back22% 36 of 165
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 97
Lysakowski1.54
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 202 of 355
Up 2–0, closes it93% 126 of 135
Up 1–0, closes it77% 170 of 220
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRadlo4wins
AwayLysakowski6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLysakowski leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRadlo60%3 of 5
AwayLysakowski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Radlo5Lysakowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Radlo5Lysakowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Radlo3Lysakowski7n = 10Lysakowski took 7 of 10
S4Radlo2Lysakowski5n = 7Lysakowski took 5 of 7
S5Radlo2Lysakowski1n = 3Radlo took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRadloLysakowskiR − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.943.5−5.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRadloLysakowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime408 / 825 vs 668 / 133549.5%50%408 / 825 vs 668 / 1335Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LysakowskiRadlo 2.25/Lysakowski 1.54
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.8%
Lysakowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lysakowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 11:00S. Radlo525131211113M. Lysakowski52111510882
WOct 4 · 21:35S. Radlo41111126113M. Lysakowski4999111192
LSep 29 · 08:00S. Radlo366118111M. Lysakowski4411911133
WSep 28 · 08:30S. Radlo50131411123M. Lysakowski4611169101
LSep 22 · 11:30S. Radlo25113381M. Lysakowski3851111113
LSep 21 · 12:00S. Radlo2486100M. Lysakowski341111123
LSep 20 · 15:35S. Radlo311111451M. Lysakowski4413911113
LSep 17 · 12:40S. Radlo341310110M. Lysakowski401512133
WSep 17 · 09:00S. Radlo351113113M. Lysakowski2991190
LSep 15 · 13:40S. Radlo51121475132M. Lysakowski5910121111153
S. Radlo10
WOct 6 · 13:30P. Gola1.80891171S. Radlo1.9011118113WOct 6 · 11:00M. Lysakowski1.46111510882S. Radlo2.505131211113LOct 6 · 10:00S. Radlo1.60911111082M. Burkacki2.20117912113WOct 6 · 09:00S. Radlo2.051112113M. Galus1.6841090WOct 6 · 07:30S. Radlo1.4113158113J. Chojnacki2.7011131191LOct 6 · 05:30S. Radlo2.1014111321P. Gola1.6016715113LOct 5 · 12:40S. Wloszek1.801181311113S. Radlo1.9131115992LOct 5 · 11:30M. Galus1.571111123S. Radlo2.2589100LOct 5 · 10:30J. Chojnacki3.1012711113S. Radlo1.331011991LOct 5 · 09:00P. Gola1.771111113S. Radlo1.956780
M. Lysakowski10
LOct 8 · 13:00B. Molka2.458111116113M. Lysakowski1.4911861872LOct 8 · 12:00B. Molka2.401111113M. Lysakowski1.506970WOct 8 · 10:30M. Lysakowski1.531111512163J. Masternak2.358131110142WOct 8 · 08:30S. Wloszek2.24891191M. Lysakowski1.5911113113LOct 8 · 06:30D. Stapor2.15911128113M. Lysakowski1.63114101152WOct 8 · 05:30J. Chojnacki2.851191171M. Lysakowski1.3613117113WOct 7 · 13:30M. Lysakowski1.5014118123S. Wloszek2.4012911101LOct 7 · 11:00M. Burkacki1.7211812113M. Lysakowski2.016111041WOct 7 · 10:00M. Lysakowski1.55111110113S. Wloszek2.30991291LOct 6 · 11:00M. Lysakowski1.46111510882S. Radlo2.505131211113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.