TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Lysakowski vs Szymon Radlo 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11515131012811811
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:51 and never touched: 63.9% is still 63.9%
Graded at full timeMichal Lysakowski to win
63.9%
63.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
104 points played in total.
Set by set
11515131012811811
H2H Michal Lysakowski 62–50 Szymon Radlo Szymon Radlo has won 50 of their 112 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5163.9%Our read68.5%to break even at 1.46
short by 4.6pp68.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.46 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (63%)
Lysakowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
62-50 in 112
Lysakowski
Wrong
gap of 12 in 112, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysakowski 1590 vs Radlo 1541
Lysakowski
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysakowski 60% vs Radlo 40%
Lysakowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysakowski 30% vs Radlo 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysakowski +2 · Radlo -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Lysakowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysakowski 1.46 / Radlo 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Lysakowski)-4.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13253651
Lysakowski1.46
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 197 of 346
Up 2–0, closes it94% 122 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it78% 165 of 212
Radlo2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog50% won 168 of 337
Down 0–1, comes back22% 35 of 163
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysakowski7wins
AwayRadlo3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLysakowski leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysakowski100%5 of 5
AwayRadlo60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysakowski5Radlo5n = 10split evenly
S2Lysakowski5Radlo5n = 10split evenly
S3Lysakowski7Radlo3n = 10Lysakowski took 7 of 10
S4Lysakowski6Radlo1n = 7Lysakowski took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysakowskiRadloL − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.335.4+6.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysakowskiRadloBasisWin rate · lifetime663 / 1328 vs 406 / 82249.9%49.4%663 / 1328 vs 406 / 822Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LysakowskiLysakowski 1.46/Radlo 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.9%
Lysakowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Radlo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 21:35M. Lysakowski4999111192S. Radlo41111126113
WSep 29 · 08:00M. Lysakowski4411911133S. Radlo366118111
LSep 28 · 08:30M. Lysakowski4611169101S. Radlo50131411123
WSep 22 · 11:30M. Lysakowski3851111113S. Radlo25113381
WSep 21 · 12:00M. Lysakowski341111123S. Radlo2486100
WSep 20 · 15:35M. Lysakowski4413911113S. Radlo311111451
WSep 17 · 12:40M. Lysakowski401512133S. Radlo341310110
LSep 17 · 09:00M. Lysakowski2991190S. Radlo351113113
WSep 15 · 13:40M. Lysakowski5910121111153S. Radlo51121475132
WSep 15 · 11:30M. Lysakowski4011117113S. Radlo27531181
M. Lysakowski10
WOct 6 · 09:30M. Lysakowski1.3711611113J. Chojnacki2.87911761WOct 6 · 08:00M. Lysakowski1.391211113M. Burkacki2.8010880LOct 6 · 06:30M. Lysakowski2.00144561P. Gola1.70121111113LOct 6 · 05:00M. Lysakowski2.10129741M. Galus1.65101111113WOct 4 · 22:35M. Burkacki—8690M. Lysakowski—1111113LOct 4 · 21:35M. Lysakowski1.5899111192S. Radlo2.25111126113LOct 4 · 19:35B. Molka2.5511115113M. Lysakowski1.44781191LOct 4 · 18:35M. Lysakowski1.548911121J. Masternak2.2511118143LOct 4 · 17:35M. Burkacki2.4581111113M. Lysakowski1.49117791LOct 4 · 16:05M. Lysakowski2.00116117112S. Wloszek1.73711911133
S. Radlo10
LOct 6 · 10:00S. Radlo1.60911111082M. Burkacki2.20117912113WOct 6 · 09:00S. Radlo2.051112113M. Galus1.6841090WOct 6 · 07:30S. Radlo1.4113158113J. Chojnacki2.7011131191LOct 6 · 05:30S. Radlo2.1014111321P. Gola1.6016715113LOct 5 · 12:40S. Wloszek1.801181311113S. Radlo1.9131115992LOct 5 · 11:30M. Galus1.571111123S. Radlo2.2589100LOct 5 · 10:30J. Chojnacki3.1012711113S. Radlo1.331011991LOct 5 · 09:00P. Gola1.771111113S. Radlo1.956780WOct 5 · 06:00S. Wloszek2.101313511142S. Radlo1.661115116163WOct 4 · 21:35M. Lysakowski1.5899111192S. Radlo2.25111126113
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