TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Lysakowski vs Mateusz Galus 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210911711411––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:55 and never touched: 56.3% is still 56.3%
Graded at full timeMateusz Galus to win
56.3%
56.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
1210911711411––
H2H Michal Lysakowski 48–46 Mateusz Galus Mateusz Galus has won 46 of their 94 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:5556.3%Our read60.6%to break even at 1.65
short by 4.3pp60.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.65 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Galus
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
48-46 in 94
Lysakowski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 94, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysakowski 1580 vs Galus 1652
Galus
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysakowski 20% vs Galus 80%
Galus
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysakowski 30% vs Galus 70%
Galus
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysakowski +1 · Galus -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Galus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Galus form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysakowski 2.10 / Galus 1.65
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Galus)-4.3pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13251602
Lysakowski2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 04)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 80 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back19% 16 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 41
Galus1.65
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 138 of 242
Up 2–0, closes it99% 73 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it78% 104 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysakowski4wins
AwayGalus6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGalus leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysakowski66.7%4 of 6
AwayGalus100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysakowski6Galus4n = 10Lysakowski took 6 of 10
S2Lysakowski5Galus5n = 10split evenly
S3Lysakowski5Galus5n = 10split evenly
S4Lysakowski2Galus3n = 5Galus took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysakowskiGalusL − GBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.237.0+1.2per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysakowskiGalusBasisWin rate · lifetime663 / 1330 vs 366 / 68849.9%53.2%663 / 1330 vs 366 / 688Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GalusLysakowski 2.10/Galus 1.65
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.3%
Galus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Galus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 05:00M. Lysakowski32129741M. Galus43101111113
WOct 2 · 12:00M. Lysakowski371411123M. Galus26124100
WSep 24 · 05:30M. Lysakowski48141211113M. Galus371214471
WSep 18 · 07:00M. Lysakowski371111153M. Galus2667130
LSep 17 · 11:30M. Lysakowski521011119112M. Galus51127811133
LSep 11 · 05:00M. Lysakowski228590M. Galus331111113
LAug 31 · 13:30M. Lysakowski4011111081M. Galus4261312113
WAug 31 · 10:30M. Lysakowski331111113M. Galus227780
LAug 30 · 17:35M. Lysakowski257990M. Galus331111113
LAug 26 · 07:00M. Lysakowski561111151182M. Galus57139177113
M. Lysakowski10
WOct 4 · 22:35M. Burkacki—8690M. Lysakowski—1111113LOct 4 · 21:35M. Lysakowski1.5899111192S. Radlo2.25111126113LOct 4 · 19:35B. Molka2.5511115113M. Lysakowski1.44781191LOct 4 · 18:35M. Lysakowski1.548911121J. Masternak2.2511118143LOct 4 · 17:35M. Burkacki2.4581111113M. Lysakowski1.49117791LOct 4 · 16:05M. Lysakowski2.00116117112S. Wloszek1.73711911133LOct 3 · 14:35J. Masternak2.301111133M. Lysakowski1.5588110WOct 3 · 12:05M. Lysakowski1.38911119113J. Chojnacki2.8211661172LOct 3 · 10:35M. Lysakowski1.4412561782J. Masternak2.5010111115113WOct 3 · 09:05M. Lysakowski1.361211113M. Burkacki2.9310880
M. Galus10
LOct 5 · 13:40M. Galus2.107970D. Stapor1.651111113WOct 5 · 11:30M. Galus1.571111123S. Radlo2.2589100WOct 5 · 09:30D. Stapor2.0541371192M. Galus1.701111116113WOct 5 · 08:30M. Galus1.281111118113J. Chojnacki3.4047131172WOct 5 · 07:30P. Gola2.25211981M. Galus1.5011811113WOct 5 · 07:00M. Galus1.4091311113S. Wloszek2.521111991WOct 2 · 12:30P. Gola8.7536100M. Galus1.061111123LOct 2 · 12:00M. Galus1.95124100M. Lysakowski1.741411123LOct 2 · 10:00B. Molka1.9571111113M. Galus1.74118571WOct 2 · 08:00M. Burkacki2.353911101M. Galus1.5411119123
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