TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Mateusz Galus vs Jakub Chojnacki 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1141171113811117
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:27 and never touched: 76.0% is still 76.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Galus to win
76.0%
76.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
1141171113811117
H2H Mateusz Galus 2–0 Jakub Chojnacki Jakub Chojnacki has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2776.0%Our read78.1%to break even at 1.28
short by 2.1pp78.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.28 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Galus
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Galus 1623 vs Chojnacki 1528
Galus
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Galus 60% vs Chojnacki 20%
Galus
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Galus 60% vs Chojnacki 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Galus +3 · Chojnacki -1
Galus
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% · Strong (leans Galus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Galus form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGalus 1.28 / Chojnacki 3.40
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Galus)-2.1pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13247235
Galus1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 136 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it99% 73 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it78% 102 of 131
Chojnacki3.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 9 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back8% 1 of 13
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeGalus2wins
AwayChojnacki0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderGalus leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricGalusChojnackiG − CBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match45.035.0+10.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGalusChojnackiBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 684 vs 14 / 3253.1%43.8%363 / 684 vs 14 / 32Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GalusGalus 1.28/Chojnacki 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76%
Galus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Galus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WOct 2 · 06:00M. Galus571114512153J. Chojnacki577121114132
WSep 30 · 08:30M. Galus331111113J. Chojnacki135440
M. Galus10
WOct 5 · 07:30P. Gola2.25211981M. Galus1.5011811113WOct 5 · 07:00M. Galus1.4091311113S. Wloszek2.521111991WOct 2 · 12:30P. Gola8.7536100M. Galus1.061111123LOct 2 · 12:00M. Galus1.95124100M. Lysakowski1.741411123LOct 2 · 10:00B. Molka1.9571111113M. Galus1.74118571WOct 2 · 08:00M. Burkacki2.353911101M. Galus1.5411119123LOct 2 · 07:00P. Gola1.8511148113M. Galus1.868121171WOct 2 · 06:00M. Galus2.151114512153J. Chojnacki1.637121114132WOct 1 · 13:00M. Galus1.14129119113J. Masternak4.89101181162LOct 1 · 11:00M. Galus1.604460P. Gola2.201111113
J. Chojnacki10
LOct 5 · 06:30D. Stapor1.281111113J. Chojnacki3.409860WOct 5 · 05:30P. Gola1.94981181J. Chojnacki1.7811115113LOct 3 · 14:05J. Chojnacki2.701012731M. Burkacki1.42121011113LOct 3 · 12:05M. Lysakowski1.38911119113J. Chojnacki2.8211661172LOct 3 · 11:05J. Chojnacki2.4061080M. Burkacki1.501112113WOct 3 · 10:05J. Chojnacki2.4511511113S. Wloszek1.49911781WOct 3 · 08:35J. Chojnacki2.15111011113J. Masternak1.62312491WOct 3 · 06:35J. Chojnacki2.85111111113B. Molka1.36891371WOct 2 · 13:30B. Molka1.6971110131J. Chojnacki2.0511412153LOct 2 · 06:00M. Galus2.151114512153J. Chojnacki1.637121114132
Upcoming Matches
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