TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dawid Stapor vs Mateusz Galus 2-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4111311711116911
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:29 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Galus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
4111311711116911
H2H Dawid Stapor 41–44 Mateusz Galus Dawid Stapor has won 41 of their 85 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:2954.0%Our read58.8%to break even at 1.70
short by 4.8pp58.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.70 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (55%)
Galus
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
41-44 in 85
Galus
Correct
gap of 3 in 85, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1695 vs Galus 1631
Stapor
Wrong
both rated, 65 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 80% vs Galus 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 80% vs Galus 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor -1 · Galus +4
Galus
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Galus) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Galus form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (59%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 2.05 / Galus 1.70
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Galus)-4.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13247634
Stapor2.05
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 47 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back27% 13 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Galus1.70
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 136 of 241
Up 2–0, closes it99% 73 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it78% 102 of 131
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor3wins
AwayGalus7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGalus leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor50%2 of 4
AwayGalus83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor4Galus6n = 10Galus took 6 of 10
S2Stapor3Galus7n = 10Galus took 7 of 10
S3Stapor3Galus7n = 10Galus took 7 of 10
S4Stapor4Galus3n = 7Stapor took 4 of 7
S5Stapor1Galus2n = 3Galus took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporGalusS − GBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.439.6−5.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporGalusBasisWin rate · lifetime499 / 930 vs 364 / 68553.7%53.1%499 / 930 vs 364 / 685Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GalusStapor 2.05/Galus 1.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Galus · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Galus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 06:30D. Stapor193880M. Galus331111113
LSep 23 · 13:40D. Stapor166730M. Galus331111113
WSep 23 · 11:30D. Stapor45511711113M. Galus4311611872
WSep 19 · 14:05D. Stapor4011711113M. Galus32811491
LSep 19 · 09:35D. Stapor183690M. Galus331111113
LSep 18 · 12:40D. Stapor35791181M. Galus4211119113
LSep 18 · 09:00D. Stapor381191081M. Galus4391112113
LSep 11 · 07:00D. Stapor44114141142M. Galus56911169113
WAug 27 · 07:30D. Stapor43111110113M. Galus30841261
LAug 19 · 10:30D. Stapor46511118112M. Galus51117911133
D. Stapor10
LOct 5 · 08:00D. Stapor1.61912110S. Wloszek2.201114133WOct 5 · 06:30D. Stapor1.281111113J. Chojnacki3.409860WOct 5 · 05:00D. Stapor1.68111611113S. Radlo2.05918761WOct 1 · 13:30D. Stapor1.551111123P. Gola2.3088100WOct 1 · 12:00J. Masternak2.75101050D. Stapor1.401212113WOct 1 · 10:30D. Stapor1.801112159113S. Radlo1.90710171182WOct 1 · 08:30M. Burkacki2.159570D. Stapor1.621111113LOct 1 · 06:30M. Galus1.651111113D. Stapor2.103880WOct 1 · 05:30P. Gola2.15119771D. Stapor1.6161111113WSep 29 · 13:00D. Stapor1.911315115113S. Radlo1.80151351192
M. Galus10
WOct 5 · 08:30M. Galus1.281111118113J. Chojnacki3.4047131172WOct 5 · 07:30P. Gola2.25211981M. Galus1.5011811113WOct 5 · 07:00M. Galus1.4091311113S. Wloszek2.521111991WOct 2 · 12:30P. Gola8.7536100M. Galus1.061111123LOct 2 · 12:00M. Galus1.95124100M. Lysakowski1.741411123LOct 2 · 10:00B. Molka1.9571111113M. Galus1.74118571WOct 2 · 08:00M. Burkacki2.353911101M. Galus1.5411119123LOct 2 · 07:00P. Gola1.8511148113M. Galus1.868121171WOct 2 · 06:00M. Galus2.151114512153J. Chojnacki1.637121114132WOct 1 · 06:30M. Galus1.651111113D. Stapor2.103880
Upcoming Matches
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M. Galus
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