TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Dawid Stapor vs Szymon Radlo 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191618117116––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:56 and never touched: 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeDawid Stapor to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
1191618117116––
H2H Dawid Stapor 37–34 Szymon Radlo Szymon Radlo has won 34 of their 71 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:5658.0%Our read59.5%to break even at 1.68
short by 1.5pp59.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.68 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.68 (55%)
Stapor
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
37-34 in 71
Stapor
Correct
gap of 3 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1702 vs Radlo 1584
Stapor
Correct
both rated, 118 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 80% vs Radlo 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 70% vs Radlo 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor +4 · Radlo +2
Stapor
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Stapor) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Radlo form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.68 / Radlo 2.05
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Stapor)-1.5pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13246253
Stapor1.68
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 01)
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 162 of 272
Up 2–0, closes it99% 80 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it87% 122 of 141
Radlo2.05
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 169 of 336
Down 0–1, comes back22% 35 of 161
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor6wins
AwayRadlo4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStapor leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor83.3%5 of 6
AwayRadlo75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor6Radlo4n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S2Stapor6Radlo4n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S3Stapor5Radlo5n = 10split evenly
S4Stapor2Radlo6n = 8Radlo took 6 of 8
S5Stapor3Radlo1n = 4Stapor took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporRadloS − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.243.7+0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporRadloBasisWin rate · lifetime497 / 927 vs 403 / 81253.6%49.6%497 / 927 vs 403 / 812Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StaporStapor 1.68/Radlo 2.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 10:30D. Stapor581112159113S. Radlo53710171182
WSep 29 · 13:00D. Stapor551315115113S. Radlo53151351192
LSep 29 · 09:30D. Stapor441810791S. Radlo50161211113
WSep 28 · 13:40D. Stapor48111112143S. Radlo4271310121
WSep 28 · 09:30D. Stapor511110117123S. Radlo49812811102
LSep 23 · 05:00D. Stapor344119101S. Radlo4311911123
WSep 22 · 13:10D. Stapor4011117113S. Radlo36881191
LSep 22 · 07:30D. Stapor51713118122S. Radlo531111611143
WSep 21 · 06:30D. Stapor331111113S. Radlo238960
LSep 16 · 06:00D. Stapor2811980S. Radlo351311113
D. Stapor10
WOct 5 · 06:30D. Stapor1.281111113J. Chojnacki3.409860WOct 1 · 13:30D. Stapor1.551111123P. Gola2.3088100WOct 1 · 12:00J. Masternak2.75101050D. Stapor1.401212113WOct 1 · 10:30D. Stapor1.801112159113S. Radlo1.90710171182WOct 1 · 08:30M. Burkacki2.159570D. Stapor1.621111113LOct 1 · 06:30M. Galus1.651111113D. Stapor2.103880WOct 1 · 05:30P. Gola2.15119771D. Stapor1.6161111113WSep 29 · 13:00D. Stapor1.911315115113S. Radlo1.80151351192LSep 29 · 11:30D. Stapor1.58115351P. Gola2.2591111113LSep 29 · 09:30S. Radlo2.23161211113D. Stapor1.591810791
S. Radlo10
WOct 5 · 06:00S. Wloszek2.101313511142S. Radlo1.661115116163WOct 4 · 23:35S. Radlo2.151111123B. Molka1.6285100WOct 4 · 21:35M. Lysakowski1.5899111192S. Radlo2.25111126113LOct 4 · 20:35J. Masternak2.051116133S. Radlo1.66914110WOct 4 · 19:05M. Burkacki2.20117891S. Radlo1.5891111113WOct 4 · 17:05S. Wloszek2.051199121S. Radlo1.7081111143WOct 4 · 15:05B. Molka1.861296101S. Radlo1.83101111123LOct 1 · 10:30D. Stapor1.801112159113S. Radlo1.90710171182LSep 29 · 13:00D. Stapor1.911315115113S. Radlo1.80151351192WSep 29 · 09:30S. Radlo2.23161211113D. Stapor1.591810791
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