TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jakub Chojnacki vs Bartlomiej Molka 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181191113117––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:30 and never touched: 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeBartlomiej Molka to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
81 points played in total.
Set by set
1181191113117––
H2H Jakub Chojnacki 3–2 Bartlomiej Molka Bartlomiej Molka has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:3068.5%Our read73.5%to break even at 1.36
short by 5.0pp73.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.36 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (68%)
Molka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chojnacki 1540 vs Molka 1592
Molka
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chojnacki 60% vs Molka 80%
Molka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chojnacki 50% vs Molka 70%
Molka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chojnacki +3 · Molka -1
Chojnacki
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Molka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chojnacki form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (35%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChojnacki 2.85 / Molka 1.36
Signal prob.32% / 69%
Edge (Molka)-5.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13235212
Chojnacki2.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 6 of 17
Down 0–1, comes back9% 1 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Molka1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 63 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it97% 30 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it76% 44 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeChojnacki3wins
AwayMolka2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderChojnacki leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChojnackin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMolka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chojnacki2Molka3n = 5Molka took 3 of 5
S2Chojnacki3Molka2n = 5Chojnacki took 3 of 5
S3Chojnacki1Molka4n = 5Molka took 4 of 5
S4Chojnacki4Molka0n = 4Chojnacki took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricChojnackiMolkaC − MBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match40.042.0−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChojnackiMolkaBasisWin rate · lifetime11 / 25 vs 547 / 118344%46.2%11 / 25 vs 547 / 1183Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MolkaChojnacki 2.85/Molka 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.5%
Molka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chojnacki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 3 · 06:35J. Chojnacki44111111113B. Molka37891371
WOct 2 · 13:30J. Chojnacki4211412153B. Molka4171110131
LOct 2 · 09:00J. Chojnacki4661191282B. Molka511181110113
LSep 30 · 06:30J. Chojnacki2410860B. Molka341211113
WSep 28 · 06:30J. Chojnacki44511611113B. Molka4711811892
J. Chojnacki10
WOct 2 · 13:30B. Molka1.6971110131J. Chojnacki2.0511412153WOct 2 · 11:30P. Gola1.426121061J. Chojnacki2.69111012113WOct 2 · 10:30M. Lysakowski1.1971111131J. Chojnacki4.3011813153LOct 2 · 09:00B. Molka1.311181110113J. Chojnacki3.2061191282LOct 2 · 06:00M. Galus2.151114512153J. Chojnacki1.637121114132LOct 2 · 05:00M. Burkacki1.33135911113J. Chojnacki3.00111111472LSep 30 · 12:30J. Chojnacki1.40129116122J. Masternak2.751011811143WSep 30 · 12:00S. Radlo2.52711661J. Chojnacki1.4711611113WSep 30 · 10:30J. Chojnacki2.751111113J. Masternak1.408990LSep 30 · 08:30M. Galus1.201111113J. Chojnacki3.605440
B. Molka10
LOct 2 · 13:30B. Molka1.6971110131J. Chojnacki2.0511412153WOct 2 · 11:00M. Burkacki2.15141011272B. Molka1.621212611113WOct 2 · 10:00B. Molka1.9571111113M. Galus1.74118571WOct 2 · 09:00B. Molka1.311181110113J. Chojnacki3.2061191282WOct 2 · 07:30B. Molka2.406131111113P. Gola1.50111113932WOct 2 · 05:30B. Molka2.7511125113M. Lysakowski1.407101151WSep 30 · 13:00B. Molka2.001111113S. Wloszek1.737950WSep 30 · 11:00B. Molka1.95817139113S. Wloszek1.741115111172LSep 30 · 09:30B. Molka2.1010101181M. Galus1.6512125113LSep 30 · 08:00B. Molka1.651071171S. Radlo2.1012116113
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