TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Lysakowski vs Bartlomiej Molka 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811119119117––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:28 and never touched: 69.3% is still 69.3%
Graded at full timeMichal Lysakowski to win
69.3%
69.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
811119119117––
H2H Michal Lysakowski 70–46 Bartlomiej Molka Bartlomiej Molka has won 46 of their 116 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:2869.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 2.1pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Lysakowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
70-46 in 116
Lysakowski
Correct
gap of 24 in 116, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysakowski 1673 vs Molka 1582
Lysakowski
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysakowski 80% vs Molka 60%
Lysakowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysakowski 70% vs Molka 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysakowski +3 · Molka -2
Lysakowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Lysakowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysakowski 1.40 / Molka 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Lysakowski)-2.1pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13236938
Lysakowski1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 194 of 339
Up 2–0, closes it94% 121 of 129
Up 1–0, closes it79% 164 of 209
Molka2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 167 of 375
Down 0–1, comes back21% 44 of 211
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysakowski6wins
AwayMolka4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLysakowski leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysakowski100%4 of 4
AwayMolka66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysakowski4Molka6n = 10Molka took 6 of 10
S2Lysakowski8Molka2n = 10Lysakowski took 8 of 10
S3Lysakowski6Molka4n = 10Lysakowski took 6 of 10
S4Lysakowski5Molka3n = 8Lysakowski took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysakowskiMolkaL − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.536.0+3.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysakowskiMolkaBasisWin rate · lifetime666 / 1328 vs 547 / 118450.2%46.2%666 / 1328 vs 547 / 1184Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LysakowskiLysakowski 1.40/Molka 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.3%
Lysakowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lysakowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 07:35M. Lysakowski4181111113B. Molka36119971
LOct 2 · 05:30M. Lysakowski337101151B. Molka3911125113
LSep 28 · 12:40M. Lysakowski35811881B. Molka4211911113
WSep 28 · 10:30M. Lysakowski3811115113B. Molka19231131
WSep 22 · 13:40M. Lysakowski43111110113B. Molka34691271
LSep 22 · 05:00M. Lysakowski571211913122B. Molka551451111143
WSep 21 · 06:00M. Lysakowski4361511113B. Molka401113971
WSep 20 · 20:05M. Lysakowski361411113B. Molka2612770
WSep 15 · 09:00M. Lysakowski341211113B. Molka2610880
LSep 13 · 16:05M. Lysakowski35881271B. Molka43111110113
M. Lysakowski10
WOct 3 · 06:05M. Lysakowski1.4311101311113S. Wloszek2.6581215982WOct 2 · 13:00M. Burkacki2.7587100M. Lysakowski1.411111123WOct 2 · 12:00M. Galus1.95124100M. Lysakowski1.741411123LOct 2 · 10:30M. Lysakowski1.1971111131J. Chojnacki4.3011813153WOct 2 · 08:30P. Gola1.9112510101M. Lysakowski1.78101112123LOct 2 · 06:30M. Burkacki2.751111123M. Lysakowski1.4099100LOct 2 · 05:30B. Molka2.7511125113M. Lysakowski1.407101151WSep 29 · 13:30M. Lysakowski1.9111119163P. Gola1.806911141WSep 29 · 12:00M. Lysakowski1.411111113S. Wloszek2.606890WSep 29 · 10:00J. Chojnacki4.60461291M. Lysakowski1.17111110113
B. Molka10
LOct 3 · 06:35J. Chojnacki2.85111111113B. Molka1.36891371LOct 2 · 13:30B. Molka1.6971110131J. Chojnacki2.0511412153WOct 2 · 11:00M. Burkacki2.15141011272B. Molka1.621212611113WOct 2 · 10:00B. Molka1.9571111113M. Galus1.74118571WOct 2 · 09:00B. Molka1.311181110113J. Chojnacki3.2061191282WOct 2 · 07:30B. Molka2.406131111113P. Gola1.50111113932WOct 2 · 05:30B. Molka2.7511125113M. Lysakowski1.407101151WSep 30 · 13:00B. Molka2.001111113S. Wloszek1.737950WSep 30 · 11:00B. Molka1.95817139113S. Wloszek1.741115111172LSep 30 · 09:30B. Molka2.1010101181M. Galus1.6512125113
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