TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Bartlomiej Molka vs Michal Lysakowski 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171210511115––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:29 and never touched: 69.9% is still 69.9%
Graded at full timeMichal Lysakowski to win
69.9%
69.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
1171210511115––
H2H Bartlomiej Molka 44–69 Michal Lysakowski Bartlomiej Molka has won 44 of their 113 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:2969.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.5pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Lysakowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
44-69 in 113
Lysakowski
Wrong
gap of 25 in 113, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molka 1568 vs Lysakowski 1676
Lysakowski
Wrong
both rated, 108 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molka 60% vs Lysakowski 100%
Lysakowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molka 60% vs Lysakowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Molka +2 · Lysakowski +5
Lysakowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Lysakowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysakowski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolka 2.75 / Lysakowski 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Lysakowski)-1.5pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13230149
Molka2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 164 of 372
Down 0–1, comes back20% 42 of 209
Down 0–2, comes back4% 5 of 120
Lysakowski1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 29)
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 191 of 333
Up 2–0, closes it94% 119 of 127
Up 1–0, closes it78% 162 of 207
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolka3wins
AwayLysakowski7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLysakowski leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolka50%2 of 4
AwayLysakowski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molka4Lysakowski6n = 10Lysakowski took 6 of 10
S2Molka2Lysakowski8n = 10Lysakowski took 8 of 10
S3Molka5Lysakowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Molka2Lysakowski6n = 8Lysakowski took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolkaLysakowskiM − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.641.4−4.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolkaLysakowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime543 / 1178 vs 663 / 132746.1%50%543 / 1178 vs 663 / 1327Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LysakowskiMolka 2.75/Lysakowski 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.9%
Lysakowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Molka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 10:30B. Molka19231131M. Lysakowski3811115113
LSep 22 · 13:40B. Molka34691271M. Lysakowski43111110113
WSep 22 · 05:00B. Molka551451111143M. Lysakowski571211913122
LSep 21 · 06:00B. Molka401113971M. Lysakowski4361511113
LSep 20 · 20:05B. Molka2612770M. Lysakowski361411113
LSep 15 · 09:00B. Molka2610880M. Lysakowski341211113
WSep 13 · 16:05B. Molka43111110113M. Lysakowski35881271
WSep 11 · 11:00B. Molka5091317113M. Lysakowski4411111571
LSep 7 · 07:30B. Molka34971171M. Lysakowski4111118113
LAug 31 · 07:00B. Molka39129991M. Lysakowski43101111113
B. Molka10
WSep 30 · 13:00B. Molka2.001111113S. Wloszek1.737950WSep 30 · 11:00B. Molka1.95817139113S. Wloszek1.741115111172LSep 30 · 09:30B. Molka2.1010101181M. Galus1.6512125113LSep 30 · 08:00B. Molka1.651071171S. Radlo2.1012116113WSep 30 · 06:30B. Molka1.231211113J. Chojnacki3.9010860WSep 30 · 05:00B. Molka1.801111113J. Masternak1.905880WSep 28 · 12:40M. Lysakowski2.24811881B. Molka1.5811911113LSep 28 · 11:30S. Radlo1.98111112113B. Molka1.751391081LSep 28 · 10:30M. Lysakowski1.4011115113B. Molka2.75231131WSep 28 · 09:00P. Gola1.4112811101B. Molka2.7014117123
M. Lysakowski10
WSep 29 · 13:30M. Lysakowski1.9111119163P. Gola1.806911141WSep 29 · 12:00M. Lysakowski1.411111113S. Wloszek2.606890WSep 29 · 10:00J. Chojnacki4.60461291M. Lysakowski1.17111110113WSep 29 · 08:00S. Radlo2.556118111M. Lysakowski1.4611911133WSep 29 · 07:00M. Lysakowski1.6611116113P. Gola2.10751191LSep 29 · 06:00D. Stapor1.92134814113M. Lysakowski1.791111111222LSep 28 · 12:40M. Lysakowski2.24811881B. Molka1.5811911113LSep 28 · 12:00J. Chojnacki1.4211112113M. Lysakowski2.70981191WSep 28 · 10:30M. Lysakowski1.4011115113B. Molka2.75231131LSep 28 · 08:30S. Radlo2.45131411123M. Lysakowski1.5011169101
Upcoming Matches
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M. Lysakowski
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