TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Bartlomiej Molka vs Jakub Chojnacki 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210118116––––
Jakub Chojnacki
Away
3.90
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:29 and never touched: 76.8% is still 76.8%
Graded at full timeBartlomiej Molka to win
76.8%
76.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
58 points played in total.
Set by set
1210118116––––
H2H Bartlomiej Molka 1–1 Jakub Chojnacki Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2976.8%Our read81.3%to break even at 1.23
short by 4.5pp81.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.23 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.23 (76%)
Molka
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Molka 1565 vs Chojnacki 1446
Molka
Correct
both rated, 119 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molka 60% vs Chojnacki 0%
Molka
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molka 40% vs Chojnacki 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Molka +2 · Chojnacki -6
Chojnacki
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% · Strong (leans Molka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chojnacki form (0%) is below what odds imply (26%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolka 1.23 / Chojnacki 3.90
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Molka)-4.5pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13220593
Molka1.23
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 59 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it75% 41 of 55
Chojnacki3.90
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMolka1wins
AwayChojnacki1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMolkaChojnackiM − CBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match40.534.0+6.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolkaChojnackiBasisWin rate · lifetime543 / 1178 vs 5 / 1446.1%35.7%543 / 1178 vs 5 / 14Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MolkaMolka 1.23/Chojnacki 3.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.8%
Molka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Molka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 30 · 06:30B. Molka341211113J. Chojnacki2410860
LSep 28 · 06:30B. Molka4711811892J. Chojnacki44511611113
B. Molka10
WSep 30 · 05:00B. Molka1.801111113J. Masternak1.905880WSep 28 · 12:40M. Lysakowski2.24811881B. Molka1.5811911113LSep 28 · 11:30S. Radlo1.98111112113B. Molka1.751391081LSep 28 · 10:30M. Lysakowski1.4011115113B. Molka2.75231131WSep 28 · 09:00P. Gola1.4112811101B. Molka2.7014117123LSep 28 · 06:30J. Chojnacki—511611113B. Molka—11811892WSep 23 · 12:40S. Radlo1.856990B. Molka1.851111113LSep 23 · 11:00S. Radlo2.00127159153B. Molka1.6410111311132LSep 23 · 10:00B. Molka2.209570P. Gola1.601111113LSep 23 · 09:00B. Molka2.1011911452D. Stapor1.60111711113
J. Chojnacki10
LSep 30 · 05:30S. Wloszek1.271111113J. Chojnacki3.508860LSep 29 · 12:30J. Chojnacki—471191S. Wloszek—11118113LSep 29 · 11:00S. Radlo1.311311811123J. Chojnacki3.201191113102LSep 29 · 10:00J. Chojnacki4.60461291M. Lysakowski1.17111110113LSep 29 · 09:00J. Chojnacki3.207760P. Gola1.311111113LSep 29 · 07:30J. Chojnacki3.7034131172D. Stapor1.251111115113WSep 29 · 05:30J. Chojnacki—11612113S. Wloszek—7111071WSep 28 · 13:10J. Chojnacki1.9112111113P. Gola1.801081171WSep 28 · 12:00J. Chojnacki1.4211112113M. Lysakowski2.70981191WSep 28 · 06:30J. Chojnacki—511611113B. Molka—11811892
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