TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Michal Lysakowski vs Pawel Gola 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1412411511611––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:29 and never touched: 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timePawel Gola to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
1412411511611––
H2H Michal Lysakowski 86–96 Pawel Gola Michal Lysakowski has won 86 of their 182 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2955.3%Our read58.8%to break even at 1.70
short by 3.5pp58.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.70 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Gola
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
86-96 in 182
Gola
Correct
gap of 10 in 182, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysakowski 1579 vs Gola 1591
Gola
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysakowski 20% vs Gola 60%
Gola
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysakowski 20% vs Gola 40%
Gola
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysakowski -1 · Gola +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Gola) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysakowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysakowski 2.00 / Gola 1.70
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Gola)-3.5pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13253016
Lysakowski2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 80 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back19% 16 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 41
Gola1.70
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 156 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it98% 82 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it85% 115 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysakowski6wins
AwayGola4wins
Lysakowski leads 6–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysakowski71.4%5 of 7
AwayGola66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysakowski7Gola3n = 10Lysakowski took 7 of 10
S2Lysakowski6Gola4n = 10Lysakowski took 6 of 10
S3Lysakowski4Gola6n = 10Gola took 6 of 10
S4Lysakowski4Gola3n = 7Lysakowski took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysakowskiGolaL − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.335.3+1.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysakowskiGolaBasisWin rate · lifetime663 / 1329 vs 576 / 118949.9%48.4%663 / 1329 vs 576 / 1189Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GolaLysakowski 2.00/Gola 1.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.3%
Gola · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gola won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 06:30M. Lysakowski29144561P. Gola45121111113
WOct 2 · 08:30M. Lysakowski45101112123P. Gola3712510101
WSep 29 · 13:30M. Lysakowski4711119163P. Gola406911141
WSep 29 · 07:00M. Lysakowski3911116113P. Gola32751191
LSep 28 · 05:30M. Lysakowski35148491P. Gola45121111113
WSep 25 · 13:00M. Lysakowski331111113P. Gola195950
LSep 25 · 12:00M. Lysakowski2612770P. Gola361411113
LSep 24 · 09:00M. Lysakowski377119101P. Gola4311911123
WSep 21 · 07:00M. Lysakowski3911611113P. Gola34711971
WSep 20 · 21:05M. Lysakowski331111113P. Gola227960
M. Lysakowski10
WOct 6 · 09:30M. Lysakowski1.3711611113J. Chojnacki2.87911761WOct 6 · 08:00M. Lysakowski1.391211113M. Burkacki2.8010880LOct 6 · 05:00M. Lysakowski2.10129741M. Galus1.65101111113WOct 4 · 22:35M. Burkacki—8690M. Lysakowski—1111113LOct 4 · 21:35M. Lysakowski1.5899111192S. Radlo2.25111126113LOct 4 · 19:35B. Molka2.5511115113M. Lysakowski1.44781191LOct 4 · 18:35M. Lysakowski1.548911121J. Masternak2.2511118143LOct 4 · 17:35M. Burkacki2.4581111113M. Lysakowski1.49117791LOct 4 · 16:05M. Lysakowski2.00116117112S. Wloszek1.73711911133LOct 3 · 14:35J. Masternak2.301111133M. Lysakowski1.5588110
P. Gola10
WOct 6 · 08:30J. Chojnacki2.85611781P. Gola1.3611811113WOct 6 · 05:30S. Radlo2.1014111321P. Gola1.6016715113LOct 5 · 13:10P. Gola1.3611691162J. Chojnacki2.90711118113LOct 5 · 11:00D. Stapor1.4671111113P. Gola2.50119881WOct 5 · 10:00P. Gola1.541111113S. Wloszek2.258980WOct 5 · 09:00P. Gola1.771111113S. Radlo1.956780LOct 5 · 07:30P. Gola2.25211981M. Galus1.5011811113LOct 5 · 05:30P. Gola1.94981181J. Chojnacki1.7811115113LOct 2 · 12:30P. Gola8.7536100M. Galus1.061111123LOct 2 · 11:30P. Gola1.426121061J. Chojnacki2.69111012113
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