TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jakub Chojnacki vs Michal Lysakowski 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113911117711––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:21 and never touched: 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Lysakowski to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
80 points played in total.
Set by set
1113911117711––
H2H Jakub Chojnacki 3–3 Michal Lysakowski Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:2168.5%Our read73.5%to break even at 1.36
short by 5.0pp73.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.36 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (68%)
Lysakowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chojnacki 1547 vs Lysakowski 1613
Lysakowski
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chojnacki 40% vs Lysakowski 80%
Lysakowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chojnacki 50% vs Lysakowski 70%
Lysakowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chojnacki +2 · Lysakowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Lysakowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChojnacki 2.85 / Lysakowski 1.36
Signal prob.32% / 69%
Edge (Lysakowski)-5.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13261788
Chojnacki2.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 06)
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 13 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Lysakowski1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 199 of 349
Up 2–0, closes it93% 124 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it78% 167 of 215
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeChojnacki3wins
AwayLysakowski3wins
1 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChojnacki75%3 of 4
AwayLysakowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chojnacki4Lysakowski2n = 6Chojnacki took 4 of 6
S2Chojnacki3Lysakowski3n = 6split evenly
S3Chojnacki3Lysakowski3n = 6split evenly
S4Chojnacki3Lysakowski2n = 5Chojnacki took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricChojnackiLysakowskiC − LBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match36.839.8−3.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChojnackiLysakowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime19 / 42 vs 667 / 133345.2%50%19 / 42 vs 667 / 1333Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LysakowskiChojnacki 2.85/Lysakowski 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Lysakowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lysakowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WOct 6 · 13:00J. Chojnacki341112113M. Lysakowski2781090
LOct 6 · 09:30J. Chojnacki33911761M. Lysakowski3911611113
LOct 3 · 12:05J. Chojnacki4111661172M. Lysakowski51911119113
WOct 2 · 10:30J. Chojnacki4711813153M. Lysakowski4271111131
LSep 29 · 10:00J. Chojnacki31461291M. Lysakowski43111110113
WSep 28 · 12:00J. Chojnacki3511112113M. Lysakowski37981191
J. Chojnacki10
WOct 6 · 13:00M. Lysakowski1.3481090J. Chojnacki3.001112113WOct 6 · 11:30J. Chojnacki1.3811115113M. Galus2.81991181LOct 6 · 09:30M. Lysakowski1.3711611113J. Chojnacki2.87911761LOct 6 · 08:30J. Chojnacki2.85611781P. Gola1.3611811113LOct 6 · 07:30S. Radlo1.4113158113J. Chojnacki2.7011131191WOct 6 · 06:00J. Chojnacki2.401111113M. Burkacki1.512670WOct 5 · 13:10P. Gola1.3611691162J. Chojnacki2.90711118113LOct 5 · 12:00S. Wloszek1.4641117143J. Chojnacki2.5511915121WOct 5 · 10:30J. Chojnacki3.1012711113S. Radlo1.331011991LOct 5 · 08:30M. Galus1.281111118113J. Chojnacki3.4047131172
M. Lysakowski10
LOct 8 · 06:30D. Stapor2.15911128113M. Lysakowski1.63114101152WOct 7 · 13:30M. Lysakowski1.5014118123S. Wloszek2.4012911101LOct 7 · 11:00M. Burkacki1.7211812113M. Lysakowski2.016111041WOct 7 · 10:00M. Lysakowski1.55111110113S. Wloszek2.30991291WOct 7 · 09:00M. Lysakowski1.901111113P. Gola1.765870WOct 7 · 07:30M. Lysakowski1.501111163B. Molka2.4025140WOct 7 · 05:30M. Lysakowski1.951211113D. Stapor1.7410560LOct 6 · 13:00M. Lysakowski1.3481090J. Chojnacki3.001112113LOct 6 · 11:00M. Lysakowski1.46111510882S. Radlo2.505131211113WOct 6 · 09:30M. Lysakowski1.3711611113J. Chojnacki2.87911761
Upcoming Matches
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