TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Krupnik Snr vs Radek Zajac 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210119118––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:51 and never touched: 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeLukas Krupnik Snr to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Lukas Krupnik Snr @ 1.50 · Won
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Snr above · Radek Zajac below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 61 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Lukas Krupnik Snr at 62.5%
61 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Snr 3–2 Radek Zajac Radek Zajac has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pick
Sealed 07:51Sent to Pro: Lukas Krupnik Snr @ 1.50 · Won
62.5%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 4.2pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Snr
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snr 1300 vs Zajac 1262
Snr
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 60% vs Zajac 40%
Snr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 40% vs Zajac 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr +1 · Zajac -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Snr) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 1.50 / Zajac 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Snr)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13266712
Snr1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As favourite43% won 19 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it71% 15 of 21
Zajac2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 11 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSnr3wins
AwayZajac2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderSnr leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnr100%3 of 3
AwayZajacn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snr3Zajac2n = 5Snr took 3 of 5
S2Snr1Zajac4n = 5Zajac took 4 of 5
S3Snr4Zajac1n = 5Snr took 4 of 5
S4Snr3Zajac1n = 4Snr took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSnrZajacS − ZBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match39.239.4−0.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrZajacBasisWin rate · lifetime70 / 156 vs 16 / 4744.9%34%70 / 156 vs 16 / 47Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SnrSnr 1.50/Zajac 2.50
Hit
What we said
62.5%
Snr · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Lukas Krupnik Snr @ 1.50 · Won
What happened
3–0
Snr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 9 · 08:15L. Snr341211113R. Zajac2710980
LSep 16 · 08:15L. Snr4293111182R. Zajac51111199113
WAug 17 · 07:45L. Snr41116211113R. Zajac4391111842
WAug 14 · 11:10L. Snr43111011113R. Zajac37912971
LJul 24 · 08:10L. Snr36981181R. Zajac3911116113
L. Snr10
LOct 9 · 09:15D. Stefek1.6781111123L. Snr2.101139101WOct 9 · 06:45D. Stefek1.7311113662L. Snr2.00961111113LOct 9 · 06:15P. Sturma1.53129911123L. Snr2.381011117102WOct 8 · 08:10P. Jokiel1.61126951L. Snr2.20101111113WOct 4 · 08:43J. Lysek1.67671111102L. Snr2.10111199123LOct 4 · 07:40J. Lysek1.73313413113L. Snr2.001111111172LOct 4 · 07:10L. Stempak1.73911115113L. Snr2.0011831162LOct 4 · 06:10L. Snr1.61311551M. Sobota2.2011611113LOct 3 · 08:44J. Lysek1.8071111113L. Snr1.91112991LOct 3 · 07:40F. Mandrysz1.8043L. Snr1.9102
R. Zajac10
WOct 9 · 08:45P. Sturma1.619111031R. Zajac2.2011912113LOct 9 · 07:15R. Zajac2.6311791172P. Sturma1.44811117113LOct 9 · 05:45D. Stefek1.501111113R. Zajac2.508580WSep 29 · 09:15D. Stefek1.5078111192R. Zajac2.50111179113WSep 29 · 08:15M. Sobota1.919860R. Zajac1.801111113LSep 29 · 07:15R. Zajac2.25811591D. Stefek1.5711811113LSep 29 · 05:45J. Matus1.83111189113R. Zajac1.8386111122LSep 16 · 09:20J. Sindler1.36101111113R. Zajac3.00124971WSep 16 · 08:15L. Snr1.5793111182R. Zajac2.25111199113LSep 16 · 07:15R. Zajac2.631147121J. Sindler1.4491111143
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