TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vitalii Krokhmal vs Oleksandr Mishchenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
41111712101315115
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:54 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Mishchenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVitalii Krokhmal above · Oleksandr Mishchenko below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 13-15
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 99 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Oleksandr Mishchenko at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Krokhmal 0–1 Oleksandr Mishchenko Vitalii Krokhmal has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5454.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Mishchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Krokhmal 1659 vs Mishchenko 1592
Krokhmal
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krokhmal 20% vs Mishchenko 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krokhmal 20% vs Mishchenko 50%
Mishchenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krokhmal -3 · Mishchenko -1
Krokhmal
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Mishchenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mishchenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrokhmal 2.00 / Mishchenko 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mishchenko)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266200
Krokhmal2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 154 days ago (May 08) · back after a break
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 103 of 234
Down 0–1, comes back25% 30 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 59
Mishchenko1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 116 of 192
Up 2–0, closes it93% 77 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it88% 101 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKrokhmal0wins
AwayMishchenko1wins
Mishchenko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKrokhmalMishchenkoK − MBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match25.040.0−15.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrokhmalMishchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 433 vs 481 / 104346.7%46.1%202 / 433 vs 481 / 1043Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MishchenkoKrokhmal 2.00/Mishchenko 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mishchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Krokhmal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 7 · 00:55V. Krokhmal25361151O. Mishchenko4011117113
V. Krokhmal10
WOct 9 · 13:25V. Krokhmal1.73711414113O. Kovalchuk2.00119111262WOct 7 · 19:55A. Chepurnyi1.4011116872V. Krokhmal2.75991111113WOct 7 · 18:55O. Mishchenko1.6771111462V. Krokhmal2.10116711113LOct 7 · 17:25E. Rubtsov1.5311511113V. Krokhmal2.38811671WOct 7 · 15:25O. Kovalchuk2.0051111642V. Krokhmal1.73116911113LOct 7 · 13:25V. Kovalenko1.4711911113V. Krokhmal2.50811341LOct 7 · 03:55V. Krokhmal1.83126711E. Rubtsov1.83101111113WOct 7 · 01:55O. Kovalchuk1.731311991V. Krokhmal2.0015911113LOct 7 · 00:55V. Krokhmal2.00361151O. Mishchenko1.7311117113WOct 6 · 23:55V. Panasenko1.836115111V. Krokhmal1.8311911133
O. Mishchenko10
LOct 9 · 13:55O. Dukhovenko1.5081111113O. Mishchenko2.50116581WOct 7 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk2.1010780O. Mishchenko1.671211113LOct 7 · 18:55O. Mishchenko1.6771111462V. Krokhmal2.10116711113LOct 7 · 16:55A. Chepurnyi1.281111113O. Mishchenko3.507990LOct 7 · 14:55V. Kovalenko1.8311912113O. Mishchenko1.837111031WOct 7 · 13:55E. Rubtsov3.0041281192O. Mishchenko1.361110116113WOct 7 · 04:25V. Kovalenko1.7310890O. Mishchenko2.001211113LOct 7 · 02:55O. Mishchenko1.36111170E. Rubtsov3.001313113WOct 7 · 00:55V. Krokhmal2.00361151O. Mishchenko1.7311117113WOct 6 · 22:55O. Kovalchuk2.10811111192O. Mishchenko1.67115213113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.