TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Eduard Rubtsov vs Oleksandr Mishchenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4111210811116911
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:49 and never touched: 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Mishchenko to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingEduard Rubtsov above · Oleksandr Mishchenko below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 93 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Oleksandr Mishchenko at 70.4%
93 points played in total.
H2H Eduard Rubtsov 50–111 Oleksandr Mishchenko Eduard Rubtsov has won 50 of their 161 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:4970.4%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 3.0pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Mishchenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
50-111 in 161
Mishchenko
Correct
gap of 61 in 161, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rubtsov 1541 vs Mishchenko 1605
Mishchenko
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rubtsov 80% vs Mishchenko 60%
Rubtsov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rubtsov 40% vs Mishchenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rubtsov +3 · Mishchenko +1
Rubtsov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Strong (leans Mishchenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mishchenko form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRubtsov 3.00 / Mishchenko 1.363
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Mishchenko)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13255716
Rubtsov3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 100 of 281
Down 0–1, comes back15% 25 of 162
Down 0–2, comes back10% 11 of 114
Mishchenko1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 114 of 189
Up 2–0, closes it93% 76 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it88% 99 of 113
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRubtsov5wins
AwayMishchenko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRubtsov100%3 of 3
AwayMishchenko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rubtsov3Mishchenko7n = 10Mishchenko took 7 of 10
S2Rubtsov5Mishchenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Rubtsov6Mishchenko4n = 10Rubtsov took 6 of 10
S4Rubtsov3Mishchenko5n = 8Mishchenko took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRubtsovMishchenkoR − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.139.5−3.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRubtsovMishchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime294 / 752 vs 486 / 104739.1%46.4%294 / 752 vs 486 / 1047Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.236.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MishchenkoRubtsov 3.00/Mishchenko 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.4%
Mishchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mishchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 02:55E. Rubtsov371313113O. Mishchenko29111170
LOct 2 · 14:55E. Rubtsov325114121O. Mishchenko4411811143
WSep 30 · 23:25E. Rubtsov46121211113O. Mishchenko331410361
LSep 30 · 00:55E. Rubtsov30811561O. Mishchenko4111811113
LSep 17 · 04:25E. Rubtsov205870O. Mishchenko331111113
LSep 16 · 02:55E. Rubtsov27551161O. Mishchenko4211119113
WSep 10 · 04:25E. Rubtsov44111011123O. Mishchenko399128101
WSep 8 · 23:25E. Rubtsov48491311113O. Mishchenko46111111762
WSep 3 · 17:25E. Rubtsov43115115113O. Mishchenko4271171162
LSep 3 · 00:25E. Rubtsov341311281O. Mishchenko4615911113
E. Rubtsov10
WOct 7 · 19:25V. Kovalenko1.4011971472E. Rubtsov2.755111112113LOct 7 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.10128100O. Kovalchuk1.671411123WOct 7 · 17:25E. Rubtsov1.5311511113V. Krokhmal2.38811671WOct 7 · 15:55E. Rubtsov3.4011811113A. Chepurnyi1.30811881WOct 7 · 03:55V. Krokhmal1.83126711E. Rubtsov1.83101111113WOct 7 · 02:55O. Mishchenko1.36111170E. Rubtsov3.001313113WOct 7 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.8096150E. Rubtsov1.911111173LOct 6 · 23:25V. Kovalenko1.4412101011113E. Rubtsov2.63101212382WOct 6 · 21:25O. Kovalchuk1.6798111482E. Rubtsov2.101111912113LOct 2 · 17:55A. Chepurnyi1.301211123E. Rubtsov3.40107100
O. Mishchenko10
LOct 7 · 18:55O. Mishchenko1.6771111462V. Krokhmal2.10116711113LOct 7 · 16:55A. Chepurnyi1.281111113O. Mishchenko3.507990LOct 7 · 14:55V. Kovalenko1.8311912113O. Mishchenko1.837111031WOct 7 · 04:25V. Kovalenko1.7310890O. Mishchenko2.001211113LOct 7 · 02:55O. Mishchenko1.36111170E. Rubtsov3.001313113WOct 7 · 00:55V. Krokhmal2.00361151O. Mishchenko1.7311117113WOct 6 · 22:55O. Kovalchuk2.10811111192O. Mishchenko1.67115213113LOct 6 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.8311119113O. Mishchenko1.83971161WOct 4 · 01:25O. Kovalchuk2.2085111192O. Mishchenko1.61111169113LOct 3 · 23:55A. Chepurnyi1.501111133O. Mishchenko2.5039110
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