TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk vs Oleksandr Mishchenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111151121113911
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:45 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Mishchenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr V Kovalchuk above · Oleksandr Mishchenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 92 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Oleksandr Mishchenko at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr V Kovalchuk 75–102 Oleksandr Mishchenko Oleksandr V Kovalchuk has won 75 of their 177 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:4554.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Mishchenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
75-102 in 177
Mishchenko
Correct
gap of 27 in 177, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1569 vs Mishchenko 1582
Mishchenko
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 20% vs Mishchenko 40%
Mishchenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 30% vs Mishchenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -2 · Mishchenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Mishchenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mishchenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 2.10 / Mishchenko 1.666
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mishchenko)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250353
Kovalchuk2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 77 of 229
Down 0–1, comes back16% 20 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 82
Mishchenko1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 112 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it93% 75 of 81
Up 1–0, closes it87% 97 of 111
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk6wins
AwayMishchenko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk83.3%5 of 6
AwayMishchenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk6Mishchenko4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk4Mishchenko6n = 10Mishchenko took 6 of 10
S3Kovalchuk6Mishchenko4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk5Mishchenko2n = 7Kovalchuk took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukMishchenkoK − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.333.6+3.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukMishchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime324 / 771 vs 483 / 104342%46.3%324 / 771 vs 483 / 1043Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MishchenkoKovalchuk 2.10/Mishchenko 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mishchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mishchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 01:25O. Kovalchuk4485111192O. Mishchenko48111169113
WOct 2 · 15:55O. Kovalchuk4312119113O. Mishchenko361091161
WOct 1 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk3811511113O. Mishchenko25511451
LSep 29 · 21:55O. Kovalchuk30781141O. Mishchenko3911116113
WSep 17 · 02:58O. Kovalchuk351112123O. Mishchenko25510100
LSep 16 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk32118761O. Mishchenko3851111113
WSep 16 · 02:53O. Kovalchuk331111113O. Mishchenko196760
LSep 16 · 00:55O. Kovalchuk3012990O. Mishchenko361411113
WSep 10 · 00:55O. Kovalchuk4211911113O. Mishchenko24511531
WSep 3 · 15:25O. Kovalchuk46811511113O. Mishchenko4611911962
O. Kovalchuk10
LOct 6 · 21:25O. Kovalchuk1.6798111482E. Rubtsov2.101111912113LOct 4 · 01:25O. Kovalchuk2.2085111192O. Mishchenko1.61111169113WOct 4 · 00:25P. Plakushchyi1.61481141O. Kovalchuk2.2011119113LOct 3 · 23:25Y. Kryvorotko1.131111143O. Kovalchuk5.5097120LOct 3 · 21:55A. Chepurnyi1.3310111112113O. Kovalchuk3.2512551442LOct 2 · 18:23O. Kovalchuk2.2571012101P. Plakushchyi1.57111210123LOct 2 · 17:25P. Plakushchyi1.57116117103O. Kovalchuk2.2551181172WOct 2 · 15:55O. Mishchenko1.611091161O. Kovalchuk2.2012119113LOct 2 · 14:25A. Chepurnyi1.3611511123O. Kovalchuk3.005114101WOct 2 · 13:25E. Rubtsov1.9113840O. Kovalchuk1.801511113
O. Mishchenko10
LOct 6 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.8311119113O. Mishchenko1.83971161WOct 4 · 01:25O. Kovalchuk2.2085111192O. Mishchenko1.61111169113LOct 3 · 23:55A. Chepurnyi1.501111133O. Mishchenko2.5039110WOct 3 · 22:25Y. Kryvorotko1.25871161O. Mishchenko3.7511111113LOct 3 · 21:25P. Plakushchyi1.7311811113O. Mishchenko2.00911641LOct 2 · 18:54O. Mishchenko2.1012711772A. Chepurnyi1.671011611113LOct 2 · 16:55A. Chepurnyi1.5311116113O. Mishchenko2.38741191LOct 2 · 15:55O. Mishchenko1.611091161O. Kovalchuk2.2012119113WOct 2 · 14:55E. Rubtsov3.005114121O. Mishchenko1.3611811143WOct 2 · 13:55O. Mishchenko2.001111113P. Plakushchyi1.739890
Upcoming Matches
O. Kovalchuk
Oct 7 · 01:55O. Kovalchuk1.73V. Krokhmal2.00—Oct 7 · 03:25O. Kovalchuk1.73V. Panasenko2.00—Oct 7 · 14:25O. Kovalchuk3.25A. Chepurnyi1.33—Oct 7 · 15:25O. Kovalchuk—V. Krokhmal——Oct 7 · 16:25O. Kovalchuk1.83V. Kovalenko1.83—Oct 7 · 18:25O. Kovalchuk1.67E. Rubtsov2.10—Oct 7 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk2.10O. Mishchenko1.67—
O. Mishchenko
Oct 7 · 00:55O. Mishchenko1.73V. Krokhmal2.00—Oct 7 · 02:55O. Mishchenko1.36E. Rubtsov3.00—Oct 7 · 04:25O. Mishchenko2.00V. Kovalenko1.73—Oct 7 · 13:55O. Mishchenko1.36E. Rubtsov3.00—Oct 7 · 14:55O. Mishchenko2.00V. Kovalenko1.73—Oct 7 · 16:55O. Mishchenko2.50A. Chepurnyi1.50—Oct 7 · 18:55O. Mishchenko—V. Krokhmal——Oct 7 · 20:25O. Mishchenko1.67O. Kovalchuk2.10—
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