TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yevhenii Holoborodko vs Yurii Volkov 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
15131210115––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:58 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeYevhenii Holoborodko to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingYevhenii Holoborodko above · Yurii Volkov below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 66 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Yevhenii Holoborodko at 57.7%
66 points played in total.
H2H Yevhenii Holoborodko 9–3 Yurii Volkov Yurii Volkov has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5857.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 6.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Holoborodko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-3 in 12
Holoborodko
Correct
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holoborodko 1552 vs Volkov 1635
Volkov
Wrong
both rated, 83 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holoborodko 80% vs Volkov 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holoborodko 50% vs Volkov 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holoborodko +1 · Volkov +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Holoborodko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volkov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoloborodko 1.571 / Volkov 2.25
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Holoborodko)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266068
Holoborodko1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 99 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it89% 41 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it67% 65 of 97
Volkov2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 41 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back27% 13 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoloborodko7wins
AwayVolkov3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHoloborodko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoloborodko71.4%5 of 7
AwayVolkov33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holoborodko7Volkov3n = 10Holoborodko took 7 of 10
S2Holoborodko6Volkov4n = 10Holoborodko took 6 of 10
S3Holoborodko7Volkov3n = 10Holoborodko took 7 of 10
S4Holoborodko4Volkov3n = 7Holoborodko took 4 of 7
S5Holoborodko1Volkov2n = 3Volkov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoloborodkoVolkovH − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.633.3+7.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoloborodkoVolkovBasisWin rate · lifetime355 / 697 vs 410 / 78750.9%52.1%355 / 697 vs 410 / 787Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HoloborodkoHoloborodko 1.57/Volkov 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Holoborodko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Holoborodko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 05:05Y. Holoborodko49118118113Y. Volkov3971161142
WSep 8 · 06:00Y. Holoborodko47141210113Y. Volkov4212101281
WAug 27 · 14:10Y. Holoborodko4491111133Y. Volkov321164111
WAug 20 · 10:00Y. Holoborodko351112123Y. Volkov27710100
LJul 17 · 05:00Y. Holoborodko4311511972Y. Volkov41211611113
WJan 12 · 07:35Y. Holoborodko4111118113Y. Volkov24451141
WDec 30 · 10:05Y. Holoborodko331111113Y. Volkov154740
WDec 29 · 10:00Y. Holoborodko45121111113Y. Volkov29147351
LDec 26 · 05:30Y. Holoborodko195950Y. Volkov331111113
LDec 21 · 10:05Y. Holoborodko50117131182Y. Volkov515111113113
Y. Holoborodko10
WOct 9 · 09:35Y. Holoborodko1.5331111113V. Kolesnykov2.38115841LOct 9 · 08:05Y. Holoborodko1.7371090Y. Kovshun2.001112113WOct 9 · 06:35Y. Holoborodko1.401111113O. Karpenko2.756490WOct 9 · 05:05Y. Holoborodko1.5711115113A. Troyan2.25681141WOct 8 · 17:40V. Shvidkiy1.5711119592Y. Holoborodko2.25841111113LOct 8 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.503920A. Zozulia1.501111113LOct 8 · 14:10A. Droshchynskyi1.331111113Y. Holoborodko3.254650LOct 8 · 12:10O. Kuzyshyn1.36118119113Y. Holoborodko3.0081191192WOct 8 · 11:10V. Merzlikin1.83591161Y. Holoborodko1.8311116113LOct 7 · 17:40A. Zozulia1.441111511113Y. Holoborodko2.6377111342
Y. Volkov10
WOct 9 · 10:05Y. Volkov2.1011911113Y. Kovshun1.67711981WOct 9 · 09:05Y. Volkov1.73111115113A. Troyan2.001361311LOct 9 · 07:35Y. Volkov2.107611101V. Kolesnykov1.6711119123WOct 9 · 05:35Y. Volkov1.401211113O. Karpenko2.7510670WOct 6 · 11:05Y. Volkov1.4011128113A. Martyniuk2.758101151LOct 6 · 09:35Y. Volkov1.447720V. Bilobrov2.631111113WOct 6 · 08:05Y. Volkov2.38114611113S. Kyienko1.5391111872LOct 6 · 06:35Y. Volkov1.7331251242A. Troyan2.0011101110113WOct 6 · 05:05Y. Volkov1.83115155113Y. Kovshun1.83511131162LOct 5 · 11:05Y. Volkov1.839111111102Y. Kovshun1.83114413123
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