TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Cabis vs Daniel Tomica 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA16 · Havlickuv Brod
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115118111––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:56 and never touched: 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeDaniel Tomica to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Cabis above · Daniel Tomica below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-1
Point 47 set 3, 11-1 · our read held Daniel Tomica at 62.1%
47 points played in total.
H2H Michal Cabis 1–4 Daniel Tomica Michal Cabis has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5662.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
clears by 0.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Tomica
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Tomica
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cabis 1729 vs Tomica 1776
Tomica
Wrong
both rated, 47 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cabis 60% vs Tomica 40%
Cabis
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cabis 50% vs Tomica 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cabis +2 · Tomica -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Tomica) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tomica form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCabis 2.20 / Tomica 1.615
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Tomica)+0.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13264740
Cabis2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 63 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back30% 23 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Tomica1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 23 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeCabis1wins
AwayTomica4wins
3 of 5 to a deciderTomica leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCabisn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayTomica100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cabis2Tomica3n = 5Tomica took 3 of 5
S2Cabis2Tomica3n = 5Tomica took 3 of 5
S3Cabis2Tomica3n = 5Tomica took 3 of 5
S4Cabis1Tomica3n = 4Tomica took 3 of 4
S5Cabis1Tomica2n = 3Tomica took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricCabisTomicaC − TBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match39.841.6−1.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCabisTomicaBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 708 vs 93 / 19051.3%49%363 / 708 vs 93 / 190Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TomicaCabis 2.20/Tomica 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.1%
Tomica · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cabis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 24 · 14:00M. Cabis4797121272D. Tomica5311111010113
LSep 19 · 15:30M. Cabis4311116692D. Tomica46941111113
WMar 22 · 11:30M. Cabis48111178113D. Tomica4075111162
LFeb 5 · 15:00M. Cabis34951191D. Tomica3611113113
LJan 15 · 15:00M. Cabis279990D. Tomica331111113
M. Cabis10
WOct 9 · 14:00L. Prikasky2.00125861M. Cabis1.73101111113WOct 4 · 17:00M. Cabis1.831111133F. Nadymacek1.8377110LOct 4 · 16:00M. Cabis1.8391181352M. Grundel1.831161111113LOct 4 · 15:30F. Nadymacek3.5012118113M. Cabis1.281081171WOct 4 · 14:00M. Cabis1.33811118113R. Urbaniec3.2511351122WOct 2 · 17:10L. Prikasky2.02812451M. Cabis1.70111011113LOct 2 · 16:00M. Cabis1.731011611122P. Wawrosz2.00128116143LOct 2 · 15:30M. Grundel1.83111179123M. Cabis1.83691111102LOct 2 · 14:00M. Cabis1.575111271L. Prikasky2.2511914113WSep 25 · 20:59M. Navedla2.25881181M. Cabis1.5711117113
D. Tomica10
LOct 9 · 14:30D. Tomica1.617117101M. Navedla2.2011911123LSep 26 · 13:31J. Pilch2.10911116123D. Tomica1.67118611102WSep 26 · 12:30D. Tomica1.617111111143M. Navedla2.20116135122WSep 26 · 11:00D. Tomica2.639111113113L. Prikasky1.4411461582LSep 26 · 10:00J. Pilch1.73391111133D. Tomica2.00111178112LSep 24 · 17:30D. Tomica2.001144101J. Pilch1.7361111123WSep 24 · 16:00D. Tomica1.9111611113J. Pilch1.80011781LSep 24 · 15:30M. Grundel1.67137911133D. Tomica2.101111115112WSep 24 · 14:00D. Tomica1.7311111010113M. Cabis2.0097121272LSep 19 · 17:31D. Tomica1.9011881172J. Pilch1.80511119113
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