TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jacek Mitas vs Mateusz Rutkowski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1157111151517511
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:01 and never touched: 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Mateusz Rutkowski @ 1.71 · Won
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
98 points played in total.
Set by set
1157111151517511
H2H Jacek Mitas 9–13 Mateusz Rutkowski Jacek Mitas has won 9 of their 22 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 08:0154.3%Our read58.5%to break even at 1.71
short by 4.2pp58.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.71 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.71 (54%)
Rutkowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-13 in 22
Rutkowski
Correct
gap of 4 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mitas 1649 vs Rutkowski 1647
Mitas
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mitas 0% vs Rutkowski 20%
Rutkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mitas 30% vs Rutkowski 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mitas -5 · Rutkowski +1
Mitas
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Rutkowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMitas 2.00 / Rutkowski 1.71
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rutkowski)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13260379
Mitas2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 48 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Rutkowski1.71
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 349 of 496
Up 2–0, closes it98% 172 of 176
Up 1–0, closes it90% 272 of 304
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMitas4wins
AwayRutkowski6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMitas75%3 of 4
AwayRutkowski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mitas4Rutkowski6n = 10Rutkowski took 6 of 10
S2Mitas3Rutkowski7n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S3Mitas3Rutkowski7n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S4Mitas3Rutkowski2n = 5Mitas took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMitasRutkowskiM − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.636.2−4.6per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMitasRutkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 282 vs 838 / 150248.6%55.8%137 / 282 vs 838 / 1502Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiMitas 2.00/Rutkowski 1.71
Hit
What we said
54.3%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Mateusz Rutkowski @ 1.71 · Won
What happened
2–3
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 22:50J. Mitas331111113M. Rutkowski258980
WAug 28 · 18:05J. Mitas4314117113M. Rutkowski351271151
LAug 27 · 22:10J. Mitas28111250M. Rutkowski381314113
LAug 22 · 00:20J. Mitas32116781M. Rutkowski3631111113
WAug 21 · 21:45J. Mitas4212811113M. Rutkowski321011471
LAug 20 · 23:45J. Mitas184860M. Rutkowski331111113
LAug 7 · 23:35J. Mitas196940M. Rutkowski331111113
LAug 6 · 21:00J. Mitas2273120M. Rutkowski361111143
WAug 2 · 21:00J. Mitas571315611123M. Rutkowski541513115102
LAug 2 · 15:00J. Mitas22321161M. Rutkowski4011117113
J. Mitas10
LOct 8 · 08:05J. Mitas2.558880J. Stecyszyn1.461111113LOct 8 · 06:25K. Wloczko1.401111113J. Mitas2.653590LOct 8 · 05:35D. Michna1.52711411113J. Mitas2.3011511472LOct 8 · 04:50J. Mitas2.2591112111G. Poliniewicz1.5711414133LOct 8 · 03:40J. Mitas2.256690P. Jendrzejewski1.541111113WSep 30 · 00:35K. Rudomina3.40115681J. Mitas1.3041111113LSep 29 · 22:55J. Nadolny2.3812112113J. Mitas1.531061191LSep 29 · 22:10L. Pietraszko1.91711711113J. Mitas1.8011711982WSep 29 · 21:25P. Blocho4.33911451J. Mitas1.2011911113WSep 29 · 20:05J. Mitas1.61511712113J. Nadolny2.20114111092
M. Rutkowski10
WOct 7 · 13:50K. Kapik1.951110891M. Rutkowski1.7581211113LOct 7 · 13:00J. Stecyszyn1.461211113M. Rutkowski2.5010750LOct 7 · 12:10M. Rutkowski3.059450K. Wloczko1.301111113LOct 7 · 10:30M. Rutkowski1.8010131111112G. Poliniewicz1.911211139133LOct 7 · 09:45D. Kosmal1.90111211123M. Rutkowski1.754148101LOct 7 · 08:30K. Kapik1.85914811113M. Rutkowski1.85111211472WOct 7 · 07:15M. Rutkowski1.821111113D. Kosmal1.889730LOct 7 · 06:00K. Wloczko1.30148119113M. Rutkowski3.15121161182LOct 7 · 04:50J. Kuzmicz1.75114146113M. Rutkowski1.97711121182WOct 7 · 03:20J. Zochniak2.4681012121M. Rutkowski1.42111210143
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