TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Zmijewski vs Henryk Tkaczyk 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811511811––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:57 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeHenryk Tkaczyk to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Zmijewski above · Henryk Tkaczyk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 54 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Henryk Tkaczyk at 62.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Artur Zmijewski 1–4 Henryk Tkaczyk Artur Zmijewski has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Zmijewski beat Tkaczyk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:5762.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Tkaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Tkaczyk
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmijewski 1498 vs Tkaczyk 1514
Tkaczyk
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmijewski 100% vs Tkaczyk 60%
Zmijewski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmijewski 90% vs Tkaczyk 60%
Zmijewski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmijewski +6 · Tkaczyk +2
Zmijewski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Tkaczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmijewski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmijewski 2.375 / Tkaczyk 1.533
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Tkaczyk)-3.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13260032
Zmijewski2.38
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 16 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back25% 4 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back25% 2 of 8
Tkaczyk1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 424 of 613
Up 2–0, closes it93% 236 of 253
Up 1–0, closes it85% 323 of 379
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeZmijewski1wins
AwayTkaczyk4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderTkaczyk leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmijewskin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayTkaczyk100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmijewski1Tkaczyk4n = 5Tkaczyk took 4 of 5
S2Zmijewski2Tkaczyk3n = 5Tkaczyk took 3 of 5
S3Zmijewski1Tkaczyk4n = 5Tkaczyk took 4 of 5
S4Zmijewski1Tkaczyk2n = 3Tkaczyk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricZmijewskiTkaczykZ − TBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match34.841.4−6.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmijewskiTkaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 197 vs 1036 / 152459.4%68%117 / 197 vs 1036 / 1524Avg sets wonper match2.32.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
TkaczykZmijewski 2.38/Tkaczyk 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Tkaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tkaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 8 · 20:30A. Zmijewski5511111011123H. Tkaczyk49861213102
LAug 27 · 22:35A. Zmijewski4381241182H. Tkaczyk481110115113
LAug 27 · 15:00A. Zmijewski31741191H. Tkaczyk4211119113
LAug 24 · 02:35A. Zmijewski2568110H. Tkaczyk351111133
LAug 23 · 18:10A. Zmijewski208570H. Tkaczyk331111113
A. Zmijewski10
WOct 8 · 22:35A. Zmijewski1.611111113Z. Nocun2.208550WOct 8 · 21:45A. Kubiak2.004270A. Zmijewski1.731111113WOct 8 · 20:30A. Zmijewski2.3811111011123H. Tkaczyk1.53861213102WOct 8 · 18:55A. Zmijewski1.531111113P. Gesiarz2.387550WOct 8 · 17:45A. Zmijewski1.61911127133A. Kubiak2.201141011112WOct 8 · 16:15A. Zmijewski1.22118711113A. Skupinski4.0031111912LOct 8 · 15:00A. Zmijewski1.6779111382Z. Nocun2.101111511113WOct 6 · 02:00J. Cyndera2.372480A. Zmijewski1.511111113WOct 6 · 01:10M. Machelski3.257111151A. Zmijewski1.3011133113WOct 6 · 00:25A. Zmijewski1.331111113A. Staniczek3.105650
H. Tkaczyk10
WOct 8 · 22:55A. Kubiak2.384116121H. Tkaczyk1.5311611143WOct 8 · 21:20A. Skupinski4.333850H. Tkaczyk1.201111113LOct 8 · 20:30A. Zmijewski2.3811111011123H. Tkaczyk1.53861213102WOct 8 · 19:20H. Tkaczyk1.671111113Z. Nocun2.107870LOct 8 · 18:10P. Gesiarz2.6311911113H. Tkaczyk1.44711661WOct 8 · 16:55A. Kubiak2.3881181192H. Tkaczyk1.53117116113WOct 8 · 15:25A. Skupinski4.0071080H. Tkaczyk1.221112113LOct 8 · 02:35Z. Nocun2.101112163H. Tkaczyk1.67810140WOct 8 · 01:25H. Tkaczyk1.57881111113A. Krezel2.2511118782LOct 8 · 00:10J. Zelezik2.10123813133H. Tkaczyk1.6710111111112
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