TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
David Bochnak vs Vaclav Nadvornik 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
115411911811––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:24 and never touched: 69.9% is still 69.9%
Graded at full timeDavid Bochnak to win
69.9%
69.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Bochnak above · Vaclav Nadvornik below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 70 set 4, 8-11 · our read held David Bochnak at 69.9%
70 points played in total.
H2H David Bochnak 26–20 Vaclav Nadvornik Vaclav Nadvornik has won 20 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2469.9%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 1.5pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Bochnak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
26-20 in 46
Bochnak
Wrong
gap of 6 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bochnak 1840 vs Nadvornik 1702
Bochnak
Wrong
both rated, 138 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bochnak 60% vs Nadvornik 40%
Bochnak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bochnak 80% vs Nadvornik 40%
Bochnak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bochnak -1 · Nadvornik -3
Nadvornik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% · Clear lean (leans Bochnak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bochnak form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBochnak 1.40 / Nadvornik 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Bochnak)-1.5pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13256504
Bochnak1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 135 of 217
Up 2–0, closes it93% 66 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it81% 100 of 124
Nadvornik2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 04)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 17 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back26% 5 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBochnak6wins
AwayNadvornik4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBochnak leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBochnak100%4 of 4
AwayNadvornik66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bochnak4Nadvornik6n = 10Nadvornik took 6 of 10
S2Bochnak6Nadvornik4n = 10Bochnak took 6 of 10
S3Bochnak8Nadvornik2n = 10Bochnak took 8 of 10
S4Bochnak2Nadvornik2n = 4split evenly
S5Bochnak2Nadvornik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBochnakNadvornikB − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.734.2+2.5per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBochnakNadvornikBasisWin rate · lifetime364 / 587 vs 177 / 32462%54.6%364 / 587 vs 177 / 324Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BochnakBochnak 1.40/Nadvornik 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.9%
Bochnak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Nadvornik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 07:25D. Bochnak331111113V. Nadvornik208840
WMay 23 · 10:55D. Bochnak361114113V. Nadvornik2991280
WApr 11 · 15:55D. Bochnak46811114123V. Nadvornik48119711102
WApr 5 · 15:55D. Bochnak331111113V. Nadvornik214890
LMar 27 · 21:25D. Bochnak4999111192V. Nadvornik46111176113
LMar 22 · 12:25D. Bochnak144370V. Nadvornik331111113
LMar 15 · 15:55D. Bochnak215970V. Nadvornik331111113
WFeb 20 · 23:35D. Bochnak48691111113V. Nadvornik3611117612
WFeb 20 · 19:55D. Bochnak331111113V. Nadvornik246990
LFeb 13 · 09:25D. Bochnak541111111292V. Nadvornik52137714113
D. Bochnak10
WOct 7 · 12:25M. Cerny1.80113891D. Bochnak1.9171111113LOct 6 · 22:35O. Kadavy1.73111113113D. Bochnak2.00961571WOct 6 · 20:55P. Vanek2.501411891D. Bochnak1.5016911113LOct 6 · 20:25O. Kadavy1.73101111113D. Bochnak2.00126791WOct 6 · 19:25D. Bochnak1.83911811113M. Cerny1.8311711972WOct 4 · 18:38D. Bochnak1.50813611113P. Vanek2.50111111852WOct 4 · 16:55P. Vanek2.5011138872D. Bochnak1.507111111113WOct 4 · 16:25D. Vesecky2.633711101D. Bochnak1.4411117123WOct 4 · 15:25D. Bochnak1.834111110113M. Cerny1.8311951282WOct 1 · 14:35D. Bochnak1.91118611133M. Cerny1.80211115112
V. Nadvornik10
LOct 7 · 11:55D. Vesecky1.731511113V. Nadvornik2.0013950LOct 4 · 13:55J. Benak1.611111113V. Nadvornik2.209580LOct 4 · 13:25J. Benak2.1011711113V. Nadvornik1.67711851LOct 4 · 12:25V. Nadvornik2.257580J. Kocab1.571111113WOct 4 · 10:55P. Dvorak2.38411941V. Nadvornik1.5311911113WOct 2 · 14:25V. Nadvornik1.90111210113D. Vesecky1.808101241WOct 2 · 12:55P. Dvorak1.531351131V. Nadvornik2.3815117113WOct 2 · 12:25D. Vesecky1.8071411532V. Nadvornik1.911112911113LOct 2 · 11:25V. Nadvornik2.25133941M. Cerny1.57111111113LOct 2 · 10:10V. Nadvornik1.482680M. Brozek2.451111113
Upcoming Matches
D. Bochnak
Nothing scheduled
V. Nadvornik
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.