TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ihor Kvak vs Danylo Kasian 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111113811––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:22 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDanylo Kasian to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIhor Kvak above · Danylo Kasian below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 63 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Danylo Kasian at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Ihor Kvak 0–1 Danylo Kasian Ihor Kvak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2254.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kasian
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kvak 1434 vs Kasian 1413
Kvak
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kvak 80% vs Kasian 40%
Kvak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kvak 60% vs Kasian 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kvak -1 · Kasian -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kasian) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasian form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKvak 2.00 / Kasian 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kasian)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13256143
Kvak2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 10 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back14% 2 of 14
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Kasian1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 32 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it73% 19 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKvak0wins
AwayKasian1wins
Kasian leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKvakKasianKvak − KasianBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match33.042.0−9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKvakKasianBasisWin rate · lifetime43 / 87 vs 58 / 9549.4%61.1%43 / 87 vs 58 / 95Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match34.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KasianKvak 2.00/Kasian 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kasian · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kasian won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 6 · 17:25I. Kvak33711781D. Kasian4211911113
I. Kvak10
LOct 7 · 09:25A. Dulich2.00116612113I. Kvak1.73711111072WOct 7 · 07:25R. Bihun1.802340I. Kvak1.911111113WOct 7 · 06:25I. Kvak1.441111113D. Ponomarenko2.637550WOct 7 · 05:25V. Kheresko2.501110581I. Kvak1.5071211113WOct 6 · 18:55D. Ponomarenko2.386112111I. Kvak1.53111110133LOct 6 · 17:25I. Kvak1.53711781D. Kasian2.3811911113LOct 6 · 15:25K. Tkachenko2.5011711123I. Kvak1.505118101WOct 6 · 13:25R. Mazur2.755790I. Kvak1.401111113WOct 6 · 12:25V. Kheresko2.00119871I. Kvak1.7331111113LSep 27 · 11:25D. Palii1.361111113I. Kvak3.009780
D. Kasian10
LOct 7 · 09:55D. Kasian1.835970D. Ponomarenko1.831111113LOct 7 · 07:55V. Kheresko1.73111136113D. Kasian2.0077111162WOct 7 · 05:55R. Bihun1.80811110D. Kasian1.911113133LOct 7 · 04:55A. Dulich2.001311113D. Kasian1.7311590WOct 6 · 18:25K. Tkachenko2.5013781292D. Kasian1.5011111110113WOct 6 · 17:25I. Kvak1.53711781D. Kasian2.3811911113LOct 6 · 15:55V. Kheresko1.8013116113D. Kasian1.911161171WOct 6 · 13:55D. Ponomarenko1.5310171181D. Kasian2.3812197113WOct 6 · 11:55R. Mazur2.101131091D. Kasian1.6781112113WSep 30 · 10:55D. Kasian1.2211118113S. Kryvoshyi4.00471131
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