TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Piotr Gumulinski vs Pawel Kurek 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8119111191412711
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:41 and never touched: 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
103 points played in total.
Set by set
8119111191412711
H2H Piotr Gumulinski 16–5 Pawel Kurek Pawel Kurek has won 5 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:4154.4%Our read57.5%to break even at 1.74
short by 3.1pp57.5% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.74 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.74 (53%)
Gumulinski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-5 in 21
Gumulinski
Wrong
gap of 11 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gumulinski 1397 vs Kurek 1420
Kurek
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gumulinski 40% vs Kurek 60%
Kurek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gumulinski 60% vs Kurek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gumulinski -1 · Kurek +3
Kurek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Gumulinski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gumulinski form (40%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGumulinski 1.74 / Kurek 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Gumulinski)-3.1pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13255130
Gumulinski1.74
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 384 of 615
Up 2–0, closes it95% 173 of 183
Up 1–0, closes it78% 259 of 332
Kurek1.95
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 137 of 340
Down 0–1, comes back22% 43 of 196
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGumulinski6wins
AwayKurek4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGumulinski leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGumulinski80%4 of 5
AwayKurek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gumulinski5Kurek5n = 10split evenly
S2Gumulinski5Kurek5n = 10split evenly
S3Gumulinski7Kurek3n = 10Gumulinski took 7 of 10
S4Gumulinski5Kurek2n = 7Gumulinski took 5 of 7
S5Gumulinski1Kurek2n = 3Kurek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGumulinskiKurekG − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.235.4+1.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGumulinskiKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime1038 / 1829 vs 476 / 93256.8%51.1%1038 / 1829 vs 476 / 932Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiGumulinski 1.74/Kurek 1.95
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.4%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 02:45P. Gumulinski146440P. Kurek331111113
WOct 4 · 23:05P. Gumulinski47571113113P. Kurek49111191172
WSep 24 · 13:10P. Gumulinski3851111113P. Kurek30115861
WSep 24 · 05:30P. Gumulinski4513911123P. Kurek3811116101
LSep 17 · 11:25P. Gumulinski31117761P. Kurek3631111113
LSep 17 · 05:15P. Gumulinski4691191162P. Kurek48119116113
WSep 9 · 14:20P. Gumulinski3611311113P. Kurek26711261
LSep 9 · 08:10P. Gumulinski49811119102P. Kurek50117911123
WAug 16 · 04:00P. Gumulinski331111113P. Kurek217860
WJul 8 · 09:00P. Gumulinski331111113P. Kurek237970
P. Gumulinski10
WOct 8 · 03:35P. Gumulinski1.401110911113O. Sokolowski2.7561211682LOct 8 · 01:10P. Gumulinski1.35115111042T. Wrzalik2.95611612113WOct 8 · 00:00P. Gumulinski2.02117612113A. Burkacki1.72911111092LOct 7 · 22:25P. Gumulinski1.769720M. Koczyba1.951111113LOct 7 · 21:10P. Gumulinski1.803790M. Baron1.851111113WOct 6 · 05:05D. Dytko2.377121061P. Gumulinski1.52111012113WOct 6 · 03:55P. Gumulinski1.701111113W. Urban2.008560WOct 6 · 02:10L. Oracz2.2010111031P. Gumulinski1.5712912113WOct 6 · 01:10K. Kowalski5.109119101P. Gumulinski1.1211911123WOct 5 · 23:50K. Adamus2.35791371P. Gumulinski1.53111111113
P. Kurek10
LOct 8 · 04:00P. Kurek1.8039120A. Burkacki1.851111143WOct 8 · 01:35P. Kurek1.511111113M. Baron2.235360WOct 8 · 00:25T. Wrzalik2.05811991P. Kurek1.6511811113WOct 7 · 23:10A. Burkacki2.60101480P. Kurek1.441216113LOct 7 · 21:35M. Koczyba1.601111113P. Kurek2.105360LOct 7 · 02:35P. Kurek1.446880M. Baron2.631111113WOct 7 · 01:00P. Kurek1.17111193I. Szymanski4.5077100LOct 6 · 23:45P. Kurek2.6331181162K. Durak1.44119119113LOct 6 · 22:10P. Kurek1.743980J. Badura1.861111113WOct 6 · 21:00P. Kurek1.5711119113K. Schaniel2.25981191
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