TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Pawel Kurek vs Igor Szymanski 2-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 1
Set by set
117117910––––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:57 and never touched: 85.6% is still 85.6%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
85.6%
85.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Kurek above · Igor Szymanski below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-10
Point 55 set 3, 9-10 · our read held Pawel Kurek at 85.6%
55 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Kurek 14–2 Igor Szymanski Igor Szymanski has won 2 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kurek beat Szymanski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:5785.6%Our read85.8%to break even at 1.166
short by 0.2pp85.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.166 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Kurek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-2 in 16
Kurek
Correct
gap of 12 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1419 vs Szymanski 1184
Kurek
Correct
both rated, 235 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 60% vs Szymanski 40%
Kurek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 70% vs Szymanski 20%
Kurek
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek -2 · Szymanski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% · Strong (leans Kurek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szymanski form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 1.166 / Szymanski 4.50
Signal prob.86% / 14%
Edge (Kurek)-0.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13253320
Kurek1.17
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 243 of 379
Up 2–0, closes it95% 115 of 121
Up 1–0, closes it83% 168 of 203
Szymanski4.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog21% won 93 of 443
Down 0–1, comes back10% 30 of 296
Down 0–2, comes back2% 5 of 214
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurek9wins
AwaySzymanski1wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKurek leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurek85.7%6 of 7
AwaySzymanski0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurek7Szymanski3n = 10Kurek took 7 of 10
S2Kurek6Szymanski4n = 10Kurek took 6 of 10
S3Kurek7Szymanski3n = 10Kurek took 7 of 10
S4Kurek5Szymanski2n = 7Kurek took 5 of 7
S5Kurek4Szymanski1n = 5Kurek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurekSzymanskiK − SBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.331.1+10.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekSzymanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime472 / 926 vs 120 / 49851%24.1%472 / 926 vs 120 / 498Avg sets wonper match2.01.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.433.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KurekKurek 1.17/Szymanski 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.6%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–1
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 18:55P. Kurek331111113I. Szymanski156360
WSep 17 · 13:55P. Kurek4111811113I. Szymanski27811621
WSep 17 · 04:10P. Kurek331111113I. Szymanski144730
WSep 3 · 10:10P. Kurek48681111123I. Szymanski45111167102
WSep 3 · 04:30P. Kurek361114113I. Szymanski2021260
WJul 24 · 13:55P. Kurek44111165113I. Szymanski4688111182
WJul 24 · 04:10P. Kurek4591411113I. Szymanski361112761
WJul 21 · 14:20P. Kurek46117611113I. Szymanski3521111742
LJul 21 · 03:00P. Kurek4511119592I. Szymanski43461111113
WJul 13 · 12:15P. Kurek42361111113I. Szymanski3011113142
P. Kurek10
LOct 6 · 23:45P. Kurek2.6331181162K. Durak1.44119119113LOct 6 · 22:10P. Kurek1.743980J. Badura1.861111113WOct 6 · 21:00P. Kurek1.5711119113K. Schaniel2.25981191WOct 6 · 19:40J. Badura2.2555111272P. Kurek1.571111810113WOct 6 · 18:55I. Szymanski4.336360P. Kurek1.201111113WOct 6 · 18:10P. Kurek1.4411611123M. Baron2.636116101LOct 6 · 16:35P. Kurek1.53118100K. Schaniel2.381311123WOct 6 · 15:50K. Durak1.5071080P. Kurek2.501112113WOct 5 · 04:20J. Nowak2.9510750P. Kurek1.361211113WOct 5 · 03:30D. Dytko1.7511341132P. Kurek1.90511117113
I. Szymanski10
LOct 7 · 00:10I. Szymanski2.5011311672M. Baron1.50911811113WOct 6 · 22:35I. Szymanski2.7511117113K. Schaniel1.40931141LOct 6 · 21:45K. Durak1.0611914123I. Szymanski8.0061112101WOct 6 · 20:30I. Szymanski2.63111138133M. Baron1.44781111112LOct 6 · 18:55I. Szymanski4.336360P. Kurek1.201111113LOct 6 · 17:45I. Szymanski7.506111121K. Durak1.0711137113LOct 6 · 16:15I. Szymanski3.7561260J. Badura1.251114113LOct 6 · 15:00I. Szymanski2.7591111101K. Schaniel1.4011813123LOct 4 · 17:05S. Szostok1.27141011113I. Szymanski3.251212841LOct 4 · 15:55I. Szymanski3.0594120M. Oracz1.301111143
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