TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kamil Durak vs Igor Szymanski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11691114121210––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:31 and never touched: 91.0% is still 91.0%
Graded at full timeKamil Durak to win
91.0%
91.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKamil Durak above · Igor Szymanski below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 85 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Kamil Durak at 91.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Kamil Durak 5–1 Igor Szymanski Igor Szymanski has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Durak beat Szymanski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:3191.0%Our read94.2%to break even at 1.062
short by 3.2pp94.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.062 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.06 (88%)
Durak
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Durak
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Durak 1558 vs Szymanski 1179
Durak
Correct
both rated, 379 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Durak 80% vs Szymanski 20%
Durak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Durak 90% vs Szymanski 30%
Durak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Durak +4 · Szymanski +1
Durak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 91% · Strong (leans Durak) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Durak form (80%) is below what odds imply (94%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDurak 1.062 / Szymanski 8.00
Signal prob.91% / 9%
Edge (Durak)-3.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13253411
Durak1.06
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite76% won 45 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it100% 24 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Szymanski8.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog21% won 93 of 443
Down 0–1, comes back10% 30 of 296
Down 0–2, comes back2% 5 of 214
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDurak5wins
AwaySzymanski1wins
1 of 6 to a deciderDurak leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDurak100%5 of 5
AwaySzymanskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Durak5Szymanski1n = 6Durak took 5 of 6
S2Durak5Szymanski1n = 6Durak took 5 of 6
S3Durak5Szymanski1n = 6Durak took 5 of 6
S4Durak2Szymanski1n = 3Durak took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home350%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricDurakSzymanskiD − SBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match39.026.8+12.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDurakSzymanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime63 / 85 vs 119 / 49574.1%24%63 / 85 vs 119 / 495Avg sets wonper match2.41.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.433.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DurakDurak 1.06/Szymanski 8.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
91%
Durak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Durak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WOct 6 · 17:45K. Durak4211137113I. Szymanski306111121
WSep 18 · 23:45K. Durak331111113I. Szymanski166910
WSep 18 · 15:50K. Durak331111113I. Szymanski83320
LAug 19 · 00:35K. Durak491111111152I. Szymanski53138813113
WJul 14 · 21:45K. Durak4211911113I. Szymanski35811881
WJul 14 · 17:45K. Durak351311113I. Szymanski1911440
K. Durak10
WOct 6 · 22:55K. Durak1.441113113M. Baron2.6351160WOct 6 · 20:05K. Durak1.3391112123K. Schaniel3.2511910101WOct 6 · 18:30J. Badura2.502980K. Durak1.501111113WOct 6 · 17:45I. Szymanski7.506111121K. Durak1.0711137113WOct 6 · 16:55K. Durak1.401111108133M. Baron2.75871211112LOct 6 · 15:50K. Durak1.5071080P. Kurek2.501112113WSep 19 · 02:35K. Durak1.50811117113R. Szymik2.5011981112WSep 19 · 01:00K. Durak1.101111113A. Szurgot6.508480WSep 18 · 23:45K. Durak1.201111113I. Szymanski4.336910WSep 18 · 22:10K. Durak1.2511611113J. Nowak3.75911761
I. Szymanski10
WOct 6 · 22:35I. Szymanski2.7511117113K. Schaniel1.40931141WOct 6 · 20:30I. Szymanski2.63111138133M. Baron1.44781111112LOct 6 · 18:55I. Szymanski4.336360P. Kurek1.201111113LOct 6 · 17:45I. Szymanski7.506111121K. Durak1.0711137113LOct 6 · 16:15I. Szymanski3.7561260J. Badura1.251114113LOct 6 · 15:00I. Szymanski2.7591111101K. Schaniel1.4011813123LOct 4 · 17:05S. Szostok1.27141011113I. Szymanski3.251212841LOct 4 · 15:55I. Szymanski3.0594120M. Oracz1.301111143LOct 4 · 14:45P. Jedrzejak1.341412113I. Szymanski3.00121020LSep 18 · 23:45K. Durak1.201111113I. Szymanski4.336910
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