TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dawid Dytko vs Piotr Gumulinski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
71112101012611––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:03 and never touched: 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
79 points played in total.
Set by set
71112101012611––
H2H Dawid Dytko 5–6 Piotr Gumulinski Dawid Dytko has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Gumulinski beat Dytko 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:0364.5%Our read65.8%to break even at 1.52
short by 1.3pp65.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.52 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.52 (61%)
Gumulinski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dytko 1289 vs Gumulinski 1443
Gumulinski
Correct
both rated, 154 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dytko 20% vs Gumulinski 80%
Gumulinski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dytko 30% vs Gumulinski 60%
Gumulinski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dytko -2 · Gumulinski +4
Gumulinski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Gumulinski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gumulinski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (66%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDytko 2.37 / Gumulinski 1.52
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Gumulinski)-1.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13252842
Dytko2.37
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog31% won 16 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back14% 4 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Gumulinski1.52
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 384 of 615
Up 2–0, closes it95% 173 of 183
Up 1–0, closes it78% 258 of 331
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDytko5wins
AwayGumulinski5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDytko66.7%2 of 3
AwayGumulinski57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dytko3Gumulinski7n = 10Gumulinski took 7 of 10
S2Dytko6Gumulinski4n = 10Dytko took 6 of 10
S3Dytko5Gumulinski5n = 10split evenly
S4Dytko3Gumulinski4n = 7Gumulinski took 4 of 7
S5Dytko2Gumulinski1n = 3Dytko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDytkoGumulinskiD − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.138.5+0.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDytkoGumulinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 307 vs 1037 / 182554.1%56.8%166 / 307 vs 1037 / 1825Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiDytko 2.37/Gumulinski 1.52
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gumulinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 05:05D. Dytko357121061P. Gumulinski44111012113
LOct 5 · 20:45D. Dytko2999110P. Gumulinski351111133
WOct 5 · 05:05D. Dytko331111113P. Gumulinski228770
LOct 4 · 20:45D. Dytko4791181182P. Gumulinski48118117113
LNov 5 · 15:20D. Dytko401191191P. Gumulinski4381113113
WNov 5 · 07:20D. Dytko44711114113P. Gumulinski3911821172
WSep 13 · 03:55D. Dytko49712117123P. Gumulinski491110711102
WSep 12 · 21:55D. Dytko44111111113P. Gumulinski34138671
WAug 16 · 08:45D. Dytko4111811113P. Gumulinski30511951
LApr 25 · 16:40D. Dytko2966170P. Gumulinski411111193
D. Dytko10
LOct 6 · 03:30D. Dytko2.4071131192L. Oracz1.51118117113LOct 6 · 01:50D. Dytko1.329740K. Kowalski3.001111113WOct 6 · 00:30D. Dytko2.001114113K. Adamus1.7171280LOct 5 · 23:30D. Dytko2.08116813102W. Urban1.687111111123LOct 5 · 22:20K. Adamus1.722111111113D. Dytko2.0011913552LOct 5 · 21:30L. Oracz1.57911115113D. Dytko2.2011861182LOct 5 · 20:45D. Dytko2.1099110P. Gumulinski1.601111133LOct 5 · 19:10D. Dytko2.20411121172W. Urban1.601191013113WOct 5 · 18:20K. Kowalski3.101125111D. Dytko1.3051111133WOct 5 · 05:05D. Dytko2.201111113P. Gumulinski1.588770
P. Gumulinski10
WOct 6 · 03:55P. Gumulinski1.701111113W. Urban2.008560WOct 6 · 02:10L. Oracz2.2010111031P. Gumulinski1.5712912113WOct 6 · 01:10K. Kowalski5.109119101P. Gumulinski1.1211911123WOct 5 · 23:50K. Adamus2.35791371P. Gumulinski1.53111111113LOct 5 · 23:05L. Oracz1.871111113P. Gumulinski1.838990WOct 5 · 21:55P. Gumulinski1.391111113W. Urban2.757930WOct 5 · 20:45D. Dytko2.1099110P. Gumulinski1.601111133LOct 5 · 19:30K. Kowalski5.757101111113P. Gumulinski1.1211124942LOct 5 · 17:55K. Adamus1.951111113P. Gumulinski1.758690LOct 5 · 05:05D. Dytko2.201111113P. Gumulinski1.588770
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