TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Postelt vs Jakub Vales 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
14121210411114––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:27 and never touched: 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeJakub Vales to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Postelt above · Jakub Vales below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 78 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Jakub Vales at 64.9%
78 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Postelt 15–24 Jakub Vales Tomas Postelt has won 15 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:2764.9%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 1.8pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Vales
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-24 in 39
Vales
Wrong
gap of 9 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Postelt 1841 vs Vales 1834
Postelt
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Postelt 60% vs Vales 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Postelt 50% vs Vales 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Postelt +2 · Vales -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Vales) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Postelt form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPostelt 2.50 / Vales 1.50
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Vales)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13254022
Postelt2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 59 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back30% 24 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back13% 5 of 40
Vales1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 111 of 195
Up 2–0, closes it88% 45 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it70% 67 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePostelt3wins
AwayVales7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVales leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePostelt40%2 of 5
AwayVales80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Postelt5Vales5n = 10split evenly
S2Postelt5Vales5n = 10split evenly
S3Postelt3Vales7n = 10Vales took 7 of 10
S4Postelt1Vales8n = 9Vales took 8 of 9
S5Postelt3Vales2n = 5Postelt took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPosteltValesP − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.645.5−4.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPosteltValesBasisWin rate · lifetime325 / 693 vs 304 / 56046.9%54.3%325 / 693 vs 304 / 560Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ValesPostelt 2.50/Vales 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Vales · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Postelt won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 4 · 19:00T. Postelt4511611892J. Vales47511911113
WSep 30 · 12:00T. Postelt6014131111113J. Vales551211131362
LSep 29 · 12:00T. Postelt28116381J. Vales4181111113
LSep 24 · 15:30T. Postelt168530J. Vales331111113
LSep 6 · 09:30T. Postelt408131271J. Vales47111114113
LSep 6 · 07:00T. Postelt4411117872J. Vales50981111113
WJun 27 · 00:30T. Postelt51912613113J. Vales511110111182
LJun 24 · 23:00T. Postelt32811851J. Vales3811511113
LJun 24 · 09:00T. Postelt4210101571J. Vales48121213113
WJun 24 · 06:30T. Postelt48116119113J. Vales4591191152
T. Postelt10
WOct 8 · 00:30J. Ruzicka2.1076100T. Postelt1.671111123WOct 7 · 23:30L. Zeman1.671168111T. Postelt2.1061111133LOct 7 · 22:30T. Postelt2.0088111152E. Mares1.73111189113WOct 4 · 20:59T. Postelt1.83118116113E. Mares1.8761161142LOct 4 · 20:30T. Postelt2.506670Z. Bilek1.501111113LOct 4 · 19:00T. Postelt2.6311611892J. Vales1.44511911113WOct 4 · 18:00E. Mares2.001147101T. Postelt1.7341111123LSep 30 · 13:00M. Zahradka1.8311101111113T. Postelt1.8361251392WSep 30 · 12:00T. Postelt2.6314131111113J. Vales1.441211131362LSep 30 · 11:30E. Mares1.9171611113T. Postelt1.801114891
J. Vales10
LOct 8 · 00:00J. Vales1.806480E. Mares1.911111113WOct 7 · 23:00J. Ruzicka2.386111161J. Vales1.5311713113WOct 7 · 21:00J. Vales2.40111199113J. Zajicek1.5096111182LOct 7 · 20:30E. Mares1.911113133J. Vales1.80411110WOct 7 · 19:30J. Vales2.5091111113J. Medek1.50114491LOct 7 · 18:30J. Zajicek1.4471113113J. Vales2.631191191LOct 6 · 12:58J. Vales1.838980E. Mares1.831111113LOct 6 · 12:30J. Vales1.5341111752J. Ruzicka2.38116811113WOct 4 · 19:00T. Postelt2.6311611892J. Vales1.44511911113LSep 30 · 12:00T. Postelt2.6314131111113J. Vales1.441211131362
Upcoming Matches
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J. Vales
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