TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Erik Mares vs Jakub Vales 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11413111311––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:25 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Vales to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingErik Mares above · Jakub Vales below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 63 set 3, 13-11 · our read held Jakub Vales at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Erik Mares 46–43 Jakub Vales Jakub Vales has won 43 of their 89 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:2554.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vales
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
46-43 in 89
Mares
Correct
gap of 3 in 89, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mares 1825 vs Vales 1838
Vales
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mares 80% vs Vales 20%
Mares
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mares 50% vs Vales 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mares +4 · Vales +1
Mares
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Vales) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vales form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMares 1.909 / Vales 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vales)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13253661
Mares1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 108 of 244
Down 0–1, comes back25% 31 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 77
Vales1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 111 of 195
Up 2–0, closes it88% 45 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it70% 67 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMares5wins
AwayVales5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMares100%5 of 5
AwayVales100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mares5Vales5n = 10split evenly
S2Mares6Vales4n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S3Mares6Vales4n = 10Mares took 6 of 10
S4Mares3Vales2n = 5Mares took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaresValesM − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.735.1+2.6per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaresValesBasisWin rate · lifetime607 / 1216 vs 302 / 55649.9%54.3%607 / 1216 vs 302 / 556Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ValesMares 1.91/Vales 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vales · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mares won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 12:58E. Mares331111113J. Vales258980
LOct 6 · 10:00E. Mares47911111062J. Vales44116412113
WOct 4 · 20:00E. Mares4411811143J. Vales419119121
LSep 30 · 13:30E. Mares2981290J. Vales361114113
LSep 30 · 10:30E. Mares249870J. Vales331111113
WSep 30 · 09:04E. Mares351113113J. Vales2551190
WSep 30 · 07:30E. Mares331111113J. Vales228590
WSep 29 · 10:30E. Mares3811511113J. Vales28511661
LSep 29 · 06:00E. Mares55911151372J. Vales561161711113
LSep 24 · 20:30E. Mares3910111081J. Vales4112612113
E. Mares10
WOct 7 · 21:30E. Mares2.4511117113J. Medek1.48961151WOct 7 · 19:00E. Mares1.801111133J. Zajicek1.9158110WOct 7 · 18:00J. Medek1.57711671E. Mares2.2511611113WOct 6 · 12:58J. Vales1.838980E. Mares1.831111113WOct 6 · 12:00E. Mares2.381111113L. Jindrak1.536980LOct 6 · 11:30J. Ruzicka2.501112113E. Mares1.5051090LOct 6 · 10:00E. Mares1.91911111062J. Vales1.80116412113LOct 5 · 16:59J. Ruzicka2.50111011113E. Mares1.50912771LOct 5 · 16:00E. Mares1.50912961M. Huk2.50111011113LOct 5 · 15:30V. Koubek1.731111123E. Mares2.0075100
J. Vales10
WOct 7 · 21:00J. Vales2.40111199113J. Zajicek1.5096111182WOct 7 · 19:30J. Vales2.5091111113J. Medek1.50114491LOct 7 · 18:30J. Zajicek1.4471113113J. Vales2.631191191LOct 6 · 12:58J. Vales1.838980E. Mares1.831111113LOct 6 · 12:30J. Vales1.5341111752J. Ruzicka2.38116811113LOct 6 · 11:00J. Vales1.911341171L. Jindrak1.8015119113WOct 6 · 10:00E. Mares1.91911111062J. Vales1.80116412113WOct 6 · 09:30L. Jindrak1.8071181172J. Vales1.91119116113LOct 6 · 08:30J. Vales1.53121111772J. Ruzicka2.38147411113WOct 6 · 07:00J. Vales1.53911116113J. Kycelt2.3811971162
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