TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Chuhai vs Ivan Fedoryshyn 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116611115311117
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:29 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeIvan Fedoryshyn to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Chuhai above · Ivan Fedoryshyn below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 82 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Ivan Fedoryshyn at 60.1%
82 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Chuhai 97–155 Ivan Fedoryshyn Serhii Chuhai has won 97 of their 252 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:2960.1%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 3.6pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Fedoryshyn
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
97-155 in 252
Fedoryshyn
Wrong
gap of 58 in 252, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chuhai 1787 vs Fedoryshyn 1881
Fedoryshyn
Wrong
both rated, 94 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chuhai 40% vs Fedoryshyn 60%
Fedoryshyn
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chuhai 50% vs Fedoryshyn 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chuhai +1 · Fedoryshyn +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Fedoryshyn) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChuhai 2.25 / Fedoryshyn 1.571
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Fedoryshyn)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251257
Chuhai2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 81 of 243
Down 0–1, comes back20% 29 of 148
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 86
Fedoryshyn1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 188 of 279
Up 2–0, closes it97% 113 of 116
Up 1–0, closes it82% 155 of 188
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChuhai4wins
AwayFedoryshyn6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderFedoryshyn leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChuhai66.7%2 of 3
AwayFedoryshyn71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chuhai3Fedoryshyn7n = 10Fedoryshyn took 7 of 10
S2Chuhai5Fedoryshyn5n = 10split evenly
S3Chuhai5Fedoryshyn5n = 10split evenly
S4Chuhai2Fedoryshyn5n = 7Fedoryshyn took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChuhaiFedoryshynC − FBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.335.2−0.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChuhaiFedoryshynBasisWin rate · lifetime479 / 943 vs 534 / 81650.8%65.4%479 / 943 vs 534 / 816Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FedoryshynChuhai 2.25/Fedoryshyn 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Fedoryshyn · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chuhai won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 15:00S. Chuhai341181141I. Fedoryshyn4113116113
WOct 1 · 14:00S. Chuhai4071111113I. Fedoryshyn28116381
LSep 29 · 16:59S. Chuhai334811101I. Fedoryshyn4111117123
LSep 29 · 16:00S. Chuhai311151051I. Fedoryshyn4391112113
WSep 25 · 16:30S. Chuhai361312113I. Fedoryshyn26111050
LSep 25 · 13:00S. Chuhai248880I. Fedoryshyn331111113
WSep 24 · 14:30S. Chuhai521111109113I. Fedoryshyn3764121142
LSep 17 · 17:00S. Chuhai31611951I. Fedoryshyn3611311113
WSep 17 · 12:00S. Chuhai4181111113I. Fedoryshyn34117791
LSep 15 · 16:30S. Chuhai214980I. Fedoryshyn331111113
S. Chuhai10
WOct 6 · 12:00S. Chuhai2.251311118113A. Kasyanov1.57117131192LOct 2 · 16:00S. Chuhai2.104580A. Kasyanov1.671111113LOct 2 · 15:00R. Ivanov1.331111123S. Chuhai3.2595100WOct 2 · 14:00M. Baday1.3631161142S. Chuhai3.00117117113LOct 2 · 12:30A. Lushchyk1.53111111113S. Chuhai2.38135961WOct 1 · 17:00R. Ivanov1.289560S. Chuhai3.501111113WOct 1 · 16:30A. Lushchyk1.67971191S. Chuhai2.1011116113LOct 1 · 15:00I. Fedoryshyn1.5713116113S. Chuhai2.251181141WOct 1 · 14:00S. Chuhai2.2571111113I. Fedoryshyn1.57116381LOct 1 · 13:00S. Chuhai2.1031261162A. Lushchyk1.671110119113
I. Fedoryshyn10
LOct 6 · 14:30I. Fedoryshyn1.8091111882A. Kasyanov1.91116811113WOct 6 · 12:30I. Fedoryshyn1.331111113A. Lushchyk3.259870LOct 1 · 17:30A. Lushchyk2.63151111133I. Fedoryshyn1.441765111WOct 1 · 16:00R. Ivanov1.9111981162I. Fedoryshyn1.80911114113WOct 1 · 15:00I. Fedoryshyn1.5713116113S. Chuhai2.251181141LOct 1 · 14:00S. Chuhai2.2571111113I. Fedoryshyn1.57116381LOct 1 · 13:30I. Fedoryshyn1.731011581R. Ivanov2.0012611113WOct 1 · 12:30I. Fedoryshyn1.441112123A. Lushchyk2.63710100WSep 29 · 16:59S. Chuhai2.254811101I. Fedoryshyn1.5711117123WSep 29 · 16:00I. Fedoryshyn1.4491112113S. Chuhai2.631151051
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