TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Chuhai vs Artem Kasyanov 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
13111171113811119
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:55 and never touched: 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeArtem Kasyanov to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Chuhai above · Artem Kasyanov below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 105 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Artem Kasyanov at 59.3%
105 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Chuhai 78–101 Artem Kasyanov Serhii Chuhai has won 78 of their 179 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5559.3%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.4pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kasyanov
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
78-101 in 179
Kasyanov
Wrong
gap of 23 in 179, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chuhai 1775 vs Kasyanov 1809
Kasyanov
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chuhai 40% vs Kasyanov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chuhai 40% vs Kasyanov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chuhai -2 · Kasyanov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Kasyanov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasyanov form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChuhai 2.25 / Kasyanov 1.571
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kasyanov)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251204
Chuhai2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 02)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 81 of 243
Down 0–1, comes back20% 29 of 148
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 86
Kasyanov1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 77 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it94% 46 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it81% 58 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChuhai4wins
AwayKasyanov6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKasyanov leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChuhai80%4 of 5
AwayKasyanov100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chuhai5Kasyanov5n = 10split evenly
S2Chuhai3Kasyanov7n = 10Kasyanov took 7 of 10
S3Chuhai5Kasyanov5n = 10split evenly
S4Chuhai3Kasyanov2n = 5Chuhai took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricChuhaiKasyanovC − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.034.4+0.6per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChuhaiKasyanovBasisWin rate · lifetime480 / 949 vs 380 / 67550.6%56.3%480 / 949 vs 380 / 675Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KasyanovChuhai 2.25/Kasyanov 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Kasyanov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chuhai won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 16:00S. Chuhai174580A. Kasyanov331111113
WSep 29 · 12:00S. Chuhai4211118123A. Kasyanov305411101
LSep 18 · 12:00S. Chuhai31129100A. Kasyanov371411123
WSep 17 · 16:00S. Chuhai331111113A. Kasyanov158250
LSep 17 · 13:30S. Chuhai537141111102A. Kasyanov53111659123
LSep 15 · 17:00S. Chuhai2987140A. Kasyanov381111163
LSep 15 · 12:00S. Chuhai361168111A. Kasyanov4491111133
WSep 11 · 16:00S. Chuhai4211911113A. Kasyanov34811781
LSep 8 · 12:00S. Chuhai34691181A. Kasyanov4011117113
WSep 4 · 17:00S. Chuhai331111113A. Kasyanov208930
S. Chuhai10
LOct 2 · 16:00S. Chuhai2.104580A. Kasyanov1.671111113LOct 2 · 15:00R. Ivanov1.331111123S. Chuhai3.2595100WOct 2 · 14:00M. Baday1.3631161142S. Chuhai3.00117117113LOct 2 · 12:30A. Lushchyk1.53111111113S. Chuhai2.38135961WOct 1 · 17:00R. Ivanov1.289560S. Chuhai3.501111113WOct 1 · 16:30A. Lushchyk1.67971191S. Chuhai2.1011116113LOct 1 · 15:00I. Fedoryshyn1.5713116113S. Chuhai2.251181141WOct 1 · 14:00S. Chuhai2.2571111113I. Fedoryshyn1.57116381LOct 1 · 13:00S. Chuhai2.1031261162A. Lushchyk1.671110119113LOct 1 · 12:00S. Chuhai3.7511761192R. Ivanov1.25911119113
A. Kasyanov10
LOct 6 · 13:00M. Baday1.3611211113A. Kasyanov3.00711461WOct 2 · 16:00S. Chuhai2.104580A. Kasyanov1.671111113LOct 2 · 14:30A. Lushchyk2.38611311113A. Kasyanov1.5311811592LOct 2 · 13:00M. Baday1.4011911113A. Kasyanov2.75811741WOct 2 · 12:00R. Ivanov1.67611661A. Kasyanov2.1011611113LSep 29 · 17:29A. Kasyanov2.7531060M. Baday1.401112113LSep 29 · 16:30M. Baday1.4011811113A. Kasyanov2.75211991WSep 29 · 15:00A. Kasyanov2.001111113I. Fedoryshyn1.739920WSep 29 · 13:30A. Kasyanov1.531111113A. Lushchyk2.383680LSep 29 · 12:00A. Kasyanov1.675411101S. Chuhai2.1011118123
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