TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Sobel vs Maciej Kolek 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210131151110121113
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:19 and never touched: 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
108 points played in total.
Set by set
1210131151110121113
H2H Artur Sobel 11–13 Maciej Kolek Artur Sobel has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:1958.7%Our read61.3%to break even at 1.63
short by 2.6pp61.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.63 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.63 (57%)
Kolek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-13 in 24
Kolek
Correct
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobel 1548 vs Kolek 1663
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 115 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobel 40% vs Kolek 60%
Kolek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobel 60% vs Kolek 80%
Kolek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobel +1 · Kolek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Kolek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobel 2.15 / Kolek 1.63
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kolek)-2.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13251112
Sobel2.15
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 79 of 183
Down 0–1, comes back26% 28 of 108
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 48
Kolek1.63
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 264 of 423
Up 2–0, closes it94% 91 of 97
Up 1–0, closes it82% 198 of 242
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSobel3wins
AwayKolek7wins
7 of 10 to a deciderKolek leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobel37.5%3 of 8
AwayKolekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobel8Kolek2n = 10Sobel took 8 of 10
S2Sobel4Kolek6n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S3Sobel3Kolek7n = 10Kolek took 7 of 10
S4Sobel6Kolek4n = 10Sobel took 6 of 10
S5Sobel1Kolek6n = 7Kolek took 6 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away660%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSobelKolekS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.144.1−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobelKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime651 / 1191 vs 768 / 151454.7%50.7%651 / 1191 vs 768 / 1514Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolekSobel 2.15/Kolek 1.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.7%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 5 · 11:50A. Sobel3911116113M. Kolek36791191
LOct 5 · 06:05A. Sobel4711881192M. Kolek48711118113
LSep 29 · 10:10A. Sobel48591211112M. Kolek531111108133
WSep 28 · 13:05A. Sobel47111177113M. Kolek4076111152
LAug 31 · 08:05A. Sobel50111011992M. Kolek52912911113
WAug 10 · 08:30A. Sobel4111118113M. Kolek28671141
LJul 21 · 13:05A. Sobel26511461M. Kolek3911611113
LJul 7 · 09:00A. Sobel46116711112M. Kolek49511119133
LJun 9 · 11:50A. Sobel3911211872M. Kolek49811811113
LJun 9 · 06:55A. Sobel4811991182M. Kolek47711117113
A. Sobel10
WOct 6 · 10:10R. Stapor2.15111111222A. Sobel1.60613711113WOct 6 · 08:35A. Sobel1.331111113B. Warpas3.108890LOct 6 · 06:55A. Sobel1.9776111162M. Lukaszewski1.76111147113LOct 6 · 05:40A. Sobel2.136490M. Kukawka1.641111113WOct 6 · 04:10A. Sobel1.22117511113D. Wrobel3.8581111452LOct 6 · 03:00A. Sobel—5611101J. Lamperski—11119123LOct 5 · 14:40A. Sobel1.60119581B. Sulkowski2.1561111113WOct 5 · 13:05A. Sobel1.85911119113J. Zochniak1.8511641142WOct 5 · 11:50A. Sobel2.1011116113M. Kolek1.65791191WOct 5 · 10:10A. Sobel1.1911711113M. Zwolinski4.30511981
M. Kolek10
WOct 5 · 14:20M. Kolek1.9014119113D. Solilo1.751251121WOct 5 · 12:40M. Zwolinski4.6081313111M. Kolek1.14111511133LOct 5 · 11:50A. Sobel2.1011116113M. Kolek1.65791191WOct 5 · 11:00M. Kolek1.46117119113B. Sulkowski2.5071161192LOct 5 · 09:50M. Kolek2.1211117992J. Zochniak1.65681111113WOct 5 · 08:35M. Zwolinski5.101159111M. Kolek1.1271111133WOct 5 · 07:20M. Kolek1.091111113M. Lukaszewski5.905550WOct 5 · 06:05A. Sobel1.9811881192M. Kolek1.65711118113WOct 5 · 04:55B. Warpas4.006680M. Kolek1.221111113WOct 5 · 03:25B. Wisniewski5.0071480M. Kolek1.151116113
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