TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Zhyrnov vs Evhenii Hrytsenko 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181188111210––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:47 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeEvhenii Hrytsenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Zhyrnov above · Evhenii Hrytsenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 79 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Evhenii Hrytsenko at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Zhyrnov 29–33 Evhenii Hrytsenko Oleksandr Zhyrnov has won 29 of their 62 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:4754.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hrytsenko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
29-33 in 62
Hrytsenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zhyrnov 1637 vs Hrytsenko 1664
Hrytsenko
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zhyrnov 20% vs Hrytsenko 40%
Hrytsenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zhyrnov 30% vs Hrytsenko 50%
Hrytsenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zhyrnov -2 · Hrytsenko -3
Hrytsenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hrytsenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrytsenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZhyrnov 2.00 / Hrytsenko 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hrytsenko)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250940
Zhyrnov2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 60 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back23% 16 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Hrytsenko1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 50 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it73% 35 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZhyrnov3wins
AwayHrytsenko7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHrytsenko leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZhyrnov50%2 of 4
AwayHrytsenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zhyrnov4Hrytsenko6n = 10Hrytsenko took 6 of 10
S2Zhyrnov1Hrytsenko9n = 10Hrytsenko took 9 of 10
S3Zhyrnov7Hrytsenko3n = 10Zhyrnov took 7 of 10
S4Zhyrnov3Hrytsenko5n = 8Hrytsenko took 5 of 8
S5Zhyrnov2Hrytsenko3n = 5Hrytsenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZhyrnovHrytsenkoZ − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.242.0−4.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZhyrnovHrytsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 772 vs 325 / 65850%49.4%386 / 772 vs 325 / 658Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HrytsenkoZhyrnov 2.00/Hrytsenko 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hrytsenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zhyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 16:40O. Zhyrnov217680E. Hrytsenko331111113
WOct 1 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov52912119113E. Hrytsenko44111071152
WSep 28 · 17:10O. Zhyrnov4011711113E. Hrytsenko34911951
LSep 8 · 10:50O. Zhyrnov4911991192E. Hrytsenko46711116113
LJul 30 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov44751111102E. Hrytsenko51111189123
LJul 29 · 13:10O. Zhyrnov28851141E. Hrytsenko4011117113
LJul 25 · 07:50O. Zhyrnov4511516492E. Hrytsenko547111411113
LJul 19 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov144550E. Hrytsenko331111113
LJul 14 · 16:40O. Zhyrnov35961191E. Hrytsenko4011117113
WJul 9 · 16:40O. Zhyrnov44115134113E. Hrytsenko45911111132
O. Zhyrnov10
LOct 6 · 10:50I. Nitchenko1.611151111113O. Zhyrnov2.2061113742LOct 6 · 08:50M. Mrykh1.611111113O. Zhyrnov2.208880WOct 6 · 07:50O. Zhyrnov3.259111110113O. Strutinskiy1.3311841292LOct 6 · 06:50A. Derevianko1.36731111123O. Zhyrnov3.00111147102LOct 5 · 16:40E. Hrytsenko1.731111113O. Zhyrnov2.007680LOct 5 · 15:40O. Zhyrnov3.0011940A. Derevianko1.361311113WOct 5 · 14:40O. Zhyrnov1.91612911113V. Maksuta1.80111011982LOct 5 · 13:10O. Zhyrnov3.00981291Y. Riadynskyi1.36111110113LOct 5 · 11:10O. Zhyrnov2.75117931O. Strutinskiy1.4031111113WOct 3 · 12:50V. Savoliuk1.441310891O. Zhyrnov2.63111211113
E. Hrytsenko10
LOct 6 · 11:20E. Hrytsenko2.50114531O. Strutinskiy1.50111211113LOct 6 · 09:20A. Derevianko1.5711116113E. Hrytsenko2.25261161LOct 6 · 07:20M. Mrykh1.8021111113E. Hrytsenko1.91117791WOct 6 · 06:20I. Nitchenko2.0011671192E. Hrytsenko1.73811118113WOct 5 · 16:40E. Hrytsenko1.731111113O. Zhyrnov2.007680WOct 5 · 15:10E. Hrytsenko2.381111113Y. Riadynskyi1.535850WOct 5 · 13:40E. Hrytsenko2.501151111113A. Derevianko1.5071191382LOct 5 · 12:10E. Hrytsenko2.251476101O. Strutinskiy1.57121111123WOct 5 · 10:40E. Hrytsenko1.8371111113V. Maksuta1.83119251LOct 2 · 11:50E. Hrytsenko1.80811971M. Mrykh1.9111911113
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