TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ivan Nitchenko vs Oleksandr Zhyrnov 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1165111113117114
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:48 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeIvan Nitchenko to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Ivan Nitchenko @ 1.61 · Won
How it is goingIvan Nitchenko above · Oleksandr Zhyrnov below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 90 set 5, 11-4 · our read held Ivan Nitchenko at 59.7%
90 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Nitchenko 23–11 Oleksandr Zhyrnov Oleksandr Zhyrnov has won 11 of their 34 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 09:4859.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 2.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Nitchenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
23-11 in 34
Nitchenko
Correct
gap of 12 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nitchenko 1668 vs Zhyrnov 1647
Nitchenko
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nitchenko 60% vs Zhyrnov 20%
Nitchenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nitchenko 40% vs Zhyrnov 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nitchenko -1 · Zhyrnov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Nitchenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zhyrnov form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNitchenko 1.615 / Zhyrnov 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Nitchenko)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250753
Nitchenko1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 42 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it76% 31 of 41
Zhyrnov2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 60 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back23% 16 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNitchenko7wins
AwayZhyrnov3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderNitchenko leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNitchenko100%5 of 5
AwayZhyrnov60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nitchenko5Zhyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S2Nitchenko5Zhyrnov5n = 10split evenly
S3Nitchenko4Zhyrnov6n = 10Zhyrnov took 6 of 10
S4Nitchenko6Zhyrnov0n = 6Nitchenko took 6 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNitchenkoZhyrnovN − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.032.9+1.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNitchenkoZhyrnovBasisWin rate · lifetime192 / 399 vs 386 / 77148.1%50.1%192 / 399 vs 386 / 771Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NitchenkoNitchenko 1.61/Zhyrnov 2.20
Hit
What we said
59.7%
Nitchenko · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Ivan Nitchenko @ 1.61 · Won
What happened
3–2
Nitchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 15 · 12:50I. Nitchenko47111213113O. Zhyrnov439101591
WSep 8 · 07:50I. Nitchenko4371212123O. Zhyrnov41111010101
WMay 8 · 06:20I. Nitchenko331111113O. Zhyrnov199550
WApr 3 · 06:20I. Nitchenko3911611113O. Zhyrnov29311781
LMar 31 · 09:20I. Nitchenko246990O. Zhyrnov331111113
WMar 27 · 07:35I. Nitchenko3961111113O. Zhyrnov31118751
WMar 24 · 10:20I. Nitchenko44111111113O. Zhyrnov33951361
LMar 17 · 13:50I. Nitchenko177370O. Zhyrnov331111113
LMar 6 · 10:20I. Nitchenko2010280O. Zhyrnov341211113
I. Nitchenko10
LOct 6 · 09:50I. Nitchenko1.9110113111O. Strutinskiy1.8012911133WOct 6 · 08:20I. Nitchenko1.5381112113A. Derevianko2.381171091LOct 6 · 06:20I. Nitchenko2.0011671192E. Hrytsenko1.73811118113WOct 2 · 12:20I. Nitchenko1.831351311113O. Strutinskiy1.831111111332WOct 2 · 10:20E. Hrytsenko1.739101291I. Nitchenko2.00111210113LOct 2 · 09:20I. Nitchenko2.501197101Y. Riadynskyi1.5041111123LOct 2 · 08:20M. Mrykh1.801111123I. Nitchenko1.9177100WOct 2 · 06:50I. Nitchenko1.611111143A. Derevianko2.2078120LSep 29 · 12:50V. Savoliuk1.5013811113I. Nitchenko2.501111281LSep 29 · 11:20I. Nitchenko1.8366131152O. Strutinskiy1.831111114113
O. Zhyrnov10
LOct 6 · 08:50M. Mrykh1.611111113O. Zhyrnov2.208880WOct 6 · 07:50O. Zhyrnov3.259111110113O. Strutinskiy1.3311841292LOct 6 · 06:50A. Derevianko1.36731111123O. Zhyrnov3.00111147102LOct 5 · 16:40E. Hrytsenko1.731111113O. Zhyrnov2.007680LOct 5 · 15:40O. Zhyrnov3.0011940A. Derevianko1.361311113WOct 5 · 14:40O. Zhyrnov1.91612911113V. Maksuta1.80111011982LOct 5 · 13:10O. Zhyrnov3.00981291Y. Riadynskyi1.36111110113LOct 5 · 11:10O. Zhyrnov2.75117931O. Strutinskiy1.4031111113WOct 3 · 12:50V. Savoliuk1.441310891O. Zhyrnov2.63111211113LOct 3 · 11:20O. Zhyrnov3.25121176112O. Strutinskiy1.331031111133
Upcoming Matches
I. Nitchenko
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O. Zhyrnov
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