TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jaroslav Martinek vs Michal Syroha 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11310121177111210
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:27 and never touched: 73.7% is still 73.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Syroha to win
73.7%
73.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Martinek above · Michal Syroha below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 94 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Michal Syroha at 73.7%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Martinek 1–3 Michal Syroha Jaroslav Martinek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:2773.7%Our read75.0%to break even at 1.333
short by 1.3pp75.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.333 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Syroha
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Syroha
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martinek 1193 vs Syroha 1310
Syroha
Wrong
both rated, 117 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martinek 40% vs Syroha 60%
Syroha
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martinek 60% vs Syroha 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Martinek -1 · Syroha +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Syroha) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Syroha form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartinek 3.25 / Syroha 1.333
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Syroha)-1.3pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13238570
Martinek3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog39% won 21 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back18% 6 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 19
Syroha1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 89 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it79% 63 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMartinek1wins
AwaySyroha3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderSyroha leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martinek2Syroha2n = 4split evenly
S2Martinek0Syroha4n = 4Syroha took 4 of 4
S3Martinek1Syroha3n = 4Syroha took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricMartinekSyrohaM − SBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match28.037.5−9.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartinekSyrohaBasisWin rate · lifetime85 / 172 vs 354 / 70049.4%50.6%85 / 172 vs 354 / 700Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.436.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SyrohaMartinek 3.25/Syroha 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
73.7%
Syroha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Martinek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WOct 4 · 07:30J. Martinek511110117123M. Syroha43312711102
LSep 15 · 19:00J. Martinek153750M. Syroha331111113
LJun 7 · 08:30J. Martinek133370M. Syroha331111113
LFeb 1 · 01:00J. Martinek331131091M. Syroha4171112113
J. Martinek10
LOct 4 · 06:30M. Bohac1.501111113J. Martinek2.503350WOct 3 · 03:00J. Martinek1.400141111113J. Cernik2.7511162692WOct 3 · 02:00J. Martinek1.571112113J. Cernik2.2531040LOct 3 · 01:00J. Martinek2.3810650J. Potensky1.531211113LOct 3 · 00:00L. Havrda1.3611116113J. Martinek3.00271191WOct 2 · 22:30V. Stach1.3611118582J. Martinek3.00851111113WSep 28 · 09:30L. Madle1.4311661142J. Martinek2.60711115113WSep 28 · 08:00J. Martinek2.5016611113M. Marjan1.501411681WSep 28 · 07:30J. Strnad4.00114651J. Martinek1.2271111113LSep 28 · 06:00J. Martinek1.91611661L. Madle1.8011911113
M. Syroha10
WOct 4 · 08:00M. Syroha1.53611115133M. Bohac2.38116811112WOct 4 · 06:00M. Syroha1.611211118113J. Svec2.2014581192WOct 3 · 20:58M. Syroha1.531111113V. Hruska Sr2.389790LOct 3 · 20:00M. Syroha2.20411711112M. Novotny1.61115118133WOct 3 · 19:30V. Hruska Sr2.005790M. Syroha1.731111113LOct 3 · 18:00M. Syroha1.531041181P. Berdych2.3812119113WOct 3 · 09:30M. Syroha2.25411119113M. Stefek1.5711851152WOct 3 · 08:30M. Syroha3.2571111113M. Barta1.33114771WOct 3 · 07:00M. Syroha2.20111257113M. Vilhan1.61610111182WOct 3 · 06:00M. Stefek1.2886100M. Syroha3.501111123
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