TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Iurii Hrekh vs Oleksandr Pohonov 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11910121161315114
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:43 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIurii Hrekh to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIurii Hrekh above · Oleksandr Pohonov below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 13-15
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 102 set 5, 11-4 · our read held Iurii Hrekh at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Iurii Hrekh 14–13 Oleksandr Pohonov Oleksandr Pohonov has won 13 of their 27 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:4354.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hrekh
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-13 in 27
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrekh 1758 vs Pohonov 1754
Hrekh
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrekh 60% vs Pohonov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrekh 50% vs Pohonov 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrekh -2 · Pohonov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Hrekh) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrekh 1.80 / Pohonov 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hrekh)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234680
Hrekh1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 164 of 278
Up 2–0, closes it99% 98 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it82% 128 of 157
Pohonov1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 45 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back20% 17 of 87
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrekh5wins
AwayPohonov5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrekh66.7%4 of 6
AwayPohonov75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrekh6Pohonov4n = 10Hrekh took 6 of 10
S2Hrekh7Pohonov3n = 10Hrekh took 7 of 10
S3Hrekh3Pohonov7n = 10Pohonov took 7 of 10
S4Hrekh5Pohonov5n = 10split evenly
S5Hrekh1Pohonov2n = 3Pohonov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrekhPohonovH − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.838.2+1.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrekhPohonovBasisWin rate · lifetime308 / 584 vs 298 / 57552.7%51.8%308 / 584 vs 298 / 575Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HrekhHrekh 1.80/Pohonov 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hrekh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hrekh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 07:35I. Hrekh4181111113O. Pohonov29113781
LSep 30 · 15:05I. Hrekh47101171182O. Pohonov42125113113
LSep 17 · 06:05I. Hrekh361110961O. Pohonov4281211113
WSep 16 · 12:05I. Hrekh4111118113O. Pohonov33691171
LSep 14 · 23:15I. Hrekh30512491O. Pohonov43111011113
WAug 30 · 23:15I. Hrekh521112108113O. Pohonov48610121192
LAug 23 · 21:45I. Hrekh29471171O. Pohonov4011117113
LAug 21 · 06:05I. Hrekh3811114572O. Pohonov44651111113
WAug 19 · 12:05I. Hrekh4011117113O. Pohonov27571141
WAug 16 · 23:15I. Hrekh44111111113O. Pohonov34713771
I. Hrekh10
LOct 3 · 23:15I. Hrekh1.8314771172I. Sukovatyi1.831211114113LOct 3 · 21:45I. Hrekh1.6765110O. Rodin2.101111133WOct 3 · 20:15I. Hrekh1.611111113B. Chaikovskyi2.204530WOct 2 · 10:35I. Hrekh2.1071111113M. Loboda1.67116971WOct 2 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.401111113A. Nazrin2.757680WOct 2 · 07:35I. Hrekh1.671111133V. Krokhmal2.1046110LOct 2 · 06:05I. Hrekh1.7391211111V. Kaidakov2.00111013133LOct 2 · 04:35I. Hrekh1.61118111052V. Slozka2.20711412113WOct 1 · 10:35I. Hrekh1.731111113V. Slozka2.005260LOct 1 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.5710880O. Rodin2.251211113
O. Pohonov10
WOct 3 · 23:45O. Pohonov1.8311124113O. Rodin1.832101181LOct 3 · 22:45A. Romanenko2.3811711113O. Pohonov1.53911661WOct 3 · 21:15O. Pohonov1.361111113I. Sukovatyi3.005390WOct 1 · 11:35O. Pohonov1.28912911113I. Sukovatyi3.50111011782LOct 1 · 09:35V. Slozka2.0081111113O. Pohonov1.73119931LOct 1 · 07:35I. Hrekh1.8081111113O. Pohonov1.91113781WOct 1 · 06:35O. Pohonov1.5011118113A. Romanenko2.50981141LOct 1 · 05:35O. Rodin1.91111210113O. Pohonov1.809101251WSep 30 · 19:05O. Pohonov1.301111113I. Sukovatyi3.406680LSep 30 · 17:05V. Slozka2.1011115143O. Pohonov1.676711121
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