TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Iurii Hrekh vs Bohdan Chaikovskyi 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114115113––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:05 and never touched: 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeIurii Hrekh to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIurii Hrekh above · Bohdan Chaikovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 45 set 3, 11-3 · our read held Iurii Hrekh at 55.9%
45 points played in total.
H2H Iurii Hrekh 16–10 Bohdan Chaikovskyi Bohdan Chaikovskyi has won 10 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:0555.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 6.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Hrekh
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-10 in 26
Hrekh
Correct
gap of 6 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrekh 1774 vs Chaikovskyi 1803
Chaikovskyi
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrekh 60% vs Chaikovskyi 40%
Hrekh
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrekh 70% vs Chaikovskyi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrekh +3 · Chaikovskyi -2
Hrekh
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Hrekh) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrekh 1.615 / Chaikovskyi 2.20
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Hrekh)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234490
Hrekh1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 02)
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 164 of 278
Up 2–0, closes it99% 98 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it82% 128 of 157
Chaikovskyi2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 30)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 139 of 311
Down 0–1, comes back27% 48 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back10% 10 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrekh6wins
AwayChaikovskyi4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHrekh leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrekh71.4%5 of 7
AwayChaikovskyi66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrekh7Chaikovskyi3n = 10Hrekh took 7 of 10
S2Hrekh6Chaikovskyi4n = 10Hrekh took 6 of 10
S3Hrekh7Chaikovskyi3n = 10Hrekh took 7 of 10
S4Hrekh2Chaikovskyi4n = 6Chaikovskyi took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrekhChaikovskyiH − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.731.1+3.6per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrekhChaikovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime307 / 581 vs 421 / 80752.8%52.2%307 / 581 vs 421 / 807Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HrekhHrekh 1.61/Chaikovskyi 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.9%
Hrekh · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Hrekh won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 16:35I. Hrekh331111113B. Chaikovskyi229760
LSep 17 · 07:35I. Hrekh331011481B. Chaikovskyi3912511113
LSep 16 · 18:05I. Hrekh32931191B. Chaikovskyi4211119113
WAug 20 · 06:35I. Hrekh331111113B. Chaikovskyi174940
LAug 19 · 13:35I. Hrekh3911831162B. Chaikovskyi49811118113
WAug 9 · 00:45I. Hrekh3811511113B. Chaikovskyi26511731
LAug 6 · 07:35I. Hrekh23113631B. Chaikovskyi3961111113
WAug 5 · 18:05I. Hrekh331111113B. Chaikovskyi215970
WAug 5 · 00:30I. Hrekh331111113B. Chaikovskyi112540
WAug 2 · 21:15I. Hrekh50811119113B. Chaikovskyi4511591192
I. Hrekh10
LOct 3 · 21:45I. Hrekh1.6765110O. Rodin2.101111133WOct 2 · 10:35I. Hrekh2.1071111113M. Loboda1.67116971WOct 2 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.401111113A. Nazrin2.757680WOct 2 · 07:35I. Hrekh1.671111133V. Krokhmal2.1046110LOct 2 · 06:05I. Hrekh1.7391211111V. Kaidakov2.00111013133LOct 2 · 04:35I. Hrekh1.61118111052V. Slozka2.20711412113WOct 1 · 10:35I. Hrekh1.731111113V. Slozka2.005260LOct 1 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.5710880O. Rodin2.251211113WOct 1 · 07:35I. Hrekh1.8081111113O. Pohonov1.91113781WOct 1 · 06:05I. Hrekh2.101411113I. Sukovatyi1.6712730
B. Chaikovskyi10
LSep 30 · 18:35B. Chaikovskyi1.501271011102A. Romanenko2.501011127123LSep 30 · 16:35I. Hrekh1.731111113B. Chaikovskyi2.009760WSep 30 · 15:35B. Chaikovskyi1.8011811113I. Sukovatyi1.91611461LSep 30 · 14:35V. Slozka1.831111113B. Chaikovskyi1.839990WSep 30 · 13:05B. Chaikovskyi1.50111189113O. Pohonov2.5078111162WSep 30 · 02:00R. Konkulovskyi1.737770B. Chaikovskyi2.001111113LSep 30 · 01:00B. Chaikovskyi1.91111371252O. Rodin1.808151110113WSep 30 · 00:00B. Chaikovskyi1.831111113I. Sukovatyi1.839540WSep 29 · 22:30B. Chaikovskyi1.50871111113A. Romanenko2.5011112692WSep 29 · 20:30B. Chaikovskyi1.5011117113O. Pohonov2.50851191
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